56. How did I do that?
Dec 11th 2008 From The Economist print edition
56-1-251
TWO earlier books by Malcolm Gladwell, 'The Tipping Point' and 'Blink', were more than just bestsellers: they became compulsory reading for the intellectually fashionable. Journalists and politicians, in particular, loved Mr Gladwell's concept of the tipping point, the moment when a trend flips into irreversible change, because it lends the power of apparent inevitability to almost any argument.
In his latest book, 'Outliers', Mr Gladwell employs many of the techniques that made the other two so engaging. To illustrate a 'big idea' that appears to challenge conventional thinking, he deploys a series of well-told anecdotes that combine seamlessly with popularised accounts of relevant academic research and case studies. This time the stories remain as intriguing as ever, but Mr Gladwell's 'big idea' (or ideas, as there are actually two in this book) is unlikely to take even the least reflective reader by surprise. His main theme is that great success is hardly ever solely the result of extraordinary innate talent but of other factors, such as luck, accidents of timing, exceptional opportunity and an appetite for plain hard work. The other is that we are all of us, for better or worse, products of our cultural background.
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56-2-252
He starts with the example of elite Canadian ice-hockey players, nearly all of whom, it turns out, were born in the first three months of the year. How can this be, he asks, when the selection process is supposed to be based on pure meritocracy? It turns out that it has nothing to do with astrological predetermination, and everything to do with the fact that each school year's eligibility cut off for hockey is January 1st. When they are very young, boys who were born near the beginning of the year tend to have a size and strength advantage over boys born later. Thus they are the ones who are picked to play in the better teams, get to play more matches and are exposed to the best coaching. By the time they are in their teens, they really are better players than those whose birthdays fell later in the year. The point of this story is that though natural ability is important other things matter more in determining success.
Similarly, Mr Gladwell finds when examining the careers of two of the men responsible for the computer revolution, Microsoft's Bill Gates and Sun's Bill Joy, that chance, timing and opportunities to practice had as much to do with their achievement as their undeniable brilliance. In Mr Gates's case, he had the good fortune to be sent to an expensive school that in 1968, when he was 13, could give him almost unlimited access to a time-sharing computer terminal, something nearly unheard of at the time. When the personal computer (invented, but never taken seriously, by IBM) came along a few years later, he had exactly the right combination of age and experience to spot its potential. The rest is history.
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