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NAGOYA, Japan (Reuters) -- Toyota Motor Corp. expects to produce a record 9.42 million vehicles next year, a 4 percent rise that should take it past General Motors Corp. as the world's biggest auto maker.
As the Japanese firm woos buyers worldwide with cars seen as safe, affordable and fuel efficient, U.S. rivals GM and Ford Motor Co. battle falling market share, closing factories and shedding thousands of jobs.
Soaring fuel prices have battered Detroit's auto heartland, with customers shunning gas-guzzling pickups in favor of cheaper-to-run models from Japanese and South Korean car makers.
Asked about the possibility of passing GM in 2007, Toyota's 70th anniversary, company president Katsuaki Watanabe said, 'That would merely be a result, not a goal.
'The important thing is to be a leader in car-making, and that's done by improving products,' he told a year-end news conference, adding that vehicle quality will be Toyota's top priority at a time of rising vehicle recalls.
Through hit products like the Camry, Yaris and Prius hybrid cars, Toyota has overtaken Chrysler Group in the United States and is expected to pass Ford next year, market forecaster Edmunds.com says.
Ford has said it expects its U.S. market share to slip to around 14 to 15 percent in 2007, from 16.6 percent in the first 11 months of this year. Toyota had 15.3 percent in the same period.
The Toyota group, which includes minivehicle maker Daihatsu Motor Co. and truck maker Hino Motors Ltd., forecast 2007 global group sales of 9.34 million vehicles, up from an estimated 8.8 million this year.
GM does not provide sales or production forecasts on an annual basis, but adding GM's January-September global sales to its fourth-quarter production plans puts its 2006 volume at 9.168 million vehicles.
At the parent level alone -- Toyota, Lexus and Scion -- Toyota expects to boost 2007 output by 4 percent to 8.47 million cars, with new capacity in Russia, China and the United States, among others, and sales by 6 percent to 8.4 million units.
'Toyota is securing a solid earnings base as its production methods are deployed worldwide and global demand shifts to fuel-efficient vehicles,' Goldman Sachs auto analyst Kunihiko Shiohara wrote in a recent report.
'Its annual vehicle production is likely to increase about 500,000 a year for the next few years and we expect operating profit growth of about 10 percent for the next three years.'
In the year to March, Toyota expects to earn a net profit of 1.55 trillion yen ($13.1 billion) -- a record for any Japanese company.
Toyota shares have gained 27 percent this year, valuing the firm at close to $230 billion -- about 14 times GM's market capitalization. The stock ended Friday up 1.6 percent at a record close of 7,800 yen.
Step by step
To keep profits growing in tandem with sales, Toyota is continually looking to cut costs, such as merging more car components. What it saves in costs, it hopes, will give it more to spend on developing new cutting-edge technologies.
Through aggressive marketing and better product, Toyota aims to boost sales of its premium Lexus cars to balance out margins with increasingly popular compact cars.
Elsewhere, Toyota last month formed an equity tie-up with truck maker Isuzu Motors Ltd. in a bid to catch up in clean diesels, a rival technology to its signature hybrid system. Last year it took a stake in Fuji Heavy Industries Ltd., partly as a way to quickly add production capacity in North America.
One gap Toyota has yet to fill is the development of ultra-cheap cars, such as Renault SA's no-frills, 5,000-euro ($6,600) Logan, to compete in emerging markets such as India.
Watanabe repeated that was a top priority to ensure future growth, especially as mature markets in North America, Europe and Japan see sputtering demand. He said his engineers were making progress.
'This is something all auto makers need to think about, not just Toyota,' said UBS Securities analyst Tatsuo Yoshida.
'Toyota is basically powerless in India now. If they build a car like the Logan, it would be frightening for the rest.'
Executives are aware that becoming global leader brings its own headaches.
'At the top, the scrutiny and criticisms are on a different level,' one said. 'That's something we need to be mindful of, and figure out how to deal with.'
Copyright 2006 Reuters. All rights reserved.This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
Toyota¡¯s Sales Projections Show It Surpassing G.M.
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By MARTIN FACKLER
Published: December 22, 2006
TOKYO, Dec. 22 — Toyota Motor said today it plans to sell 9.34 million vehicles next year, a figure that analysts said would put it ahead of troubled General Motors as the world¡¯s largest auto company.
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Vehicle Production by Manufacturer
(pdf) Toyota reported global group sales this year of 8.8 million cars and trucks, below G.M.¡¯s 2006 sales forecast of 9.2 million vehicles. But the figures released today showed the two rival car giants on starkly different trajectories, with Toyota expecting to add a half million vehicle sales next year, at a time when G.M. is shuttering plants and laying off workers.
Surpassing G.M. would be a crowning achievement for Toyota, a company that got its start in the 1930s by reverse-engineering G.M. and Ford cars, and that spent decades catching up with Detroit. It would also end G.M.¡¯s 81-year reign over the global auto industry, and mark another step in the rise of Asian carmakers.
However, becoming the global leader would also have its pitfalls for Toyota, analysts warned. The Japanese automaker could become a victim of its own success and follow G.M.¡¯s decline if it grows complacent, or lets quality control slip amid its rapid expansion, analysts said. Being at the top could also make Toyota a fatter target for critics, particularly in Congress, where the company¡¯s rise could fan a protectionist backlash, analysts said.
¡°Does being No. 1 matter? It matters for G.M., and for America,¡± said Hirofumi Yokoi, an auto analyst at CSM Asia. ¡°It becomes a political issue when America gets passed in a core industry. Toyota will have to be even more sensitive and cautious in the U.S. market.¡±
Toyota¡¯s emergence as No. 1 would also realign the global auto industry. The Japanese car company would become the new industry benchmark, say analysts, and one that would be tough to match. While G.M.¡¯s strength in recent years has been its finance arm, Toyota¡¯s success is grounded in its formidable manufacturing prowess. As the world¡¯s most profitable carmaker, it also has the cash to invest heavily in new technologies and products, analysts said.
Analysts also said reaching the top would not exhaust Toyota¡¯s opportunities for growth. They said Toyota will continue to gain in the American market, where higher gas prices have increased the popularity of smaller, more fuel-efficient vehicles. They said Toyota was expanding in developing markets, particularly China, and into alternative-energy vehicles, like hybrid and fuel-cell technologies.
Toyota¡¯s rise would also prove a victory of sorts for its unique corporate culture, the so-called Toyota Way, which is rooted in an obsession with craftsmanship and constant improvement, or ¡°kaizen.¡± Analysts said the Toyota Way would likely become enshrined as the industry¡¯s gold standard, and the model to mimic or surpass for new challengers from South Korea and China.
¡°This proves that the Toyota Way is more than just an odd, quirky theory,¡± said Chester Dawson, author of ¡°Lexus: the Relentless Pursuit.¡±
¡°Being No. 1 means Toyota now sets the standards that everyone has to beat,¡± he said.
For Toyota, the immediate concern appears to be avoiding any political fallout from passing G.M. This morning, Toyota¡¯s president, Katsuaki Watanabe, treaded lightly around the issue of his company¡¯s overtaking G.M., while announcing may open another factory in North America. At a press conference in Nagoya, near his company¡¯s Toyota City headquarters, Mr. Watanabe said passing G.M. ¡°is just a question of results,¡± and not a significant event for Toyota, according to Bloomberg News.
Toyota is also considering another factory somewhere in North America, Mr. Watanabe said. The company just opened a $1.28 billion pickup truck plant in San Antonio, Tex., last month, and has another factory under construction in Woodstock, Ontario slated to open in 2008.
Toyota has been building plants in the United States since the 1980s, partly to blunt trade criticism. The expanded production will help Toyota to meet U.S. sales gains without increasing exports from Japan, a Toyota executive vice president, Tokuichi Uranishi, said, according to Bloomberg News.
Mr. Watanabe also addressed Toyota¡¯s growing number of recalls this year, which have tarnished the company¡¯s reputation for sterling quality. In Japan alone, Toyota has recalled 1.2 million vehicles this year, prompting the transport ministry to order the company to improve quality control.
¡°There will be no growth without quality,¡± Mr. Watanabe told reporters, according to The Associated Press. ¡°We¡¯d like to continue our efforts to make good products that win support from our customers.¡±
Analysts say the growing number of defects could seriously undermine the company in the long run, especially if they are a symptom that Toyota is losing its grip on quality control as it charges forward with expansion.
¡°Now that it¡¯s Toyota¡¯s turn on top of the industry,¡± said CSM¡¯s Mr. Yokoi, ¡°Toyota has to figure out how to keep from following G.M. into decline.¡±
So far, the recalls have not slowed Toyota¡¯s pace of growth. The company said today that it and its affiliates expect to build 9.42 million cars and trucks next year, up from 9.04 million this year. The Toyota group includes two subsidiaries, truck-maker Hino Motors and Daihatsu, a builder of compact cars.
Toyota also gave a regional breakdown for next year¡¯s forecasted sales of cars built by the parent company, which bear the Toyota and Lexus brands. The largest market will remain the United States, where sales are expected to rise 6 percent to 2.68 million vehicles.
The company also said it expects a 9 percent rise in Europe and a 15 percent gain in Asian markets, including China.
Asked if becoming the industry leader would have any real impact on Toyota¡¯s core business of building cars, most analysts said no. They said Toyota would likely keep doing what it has been doing so far: grabbing global market share by producing reliable, high-mileage vehicles.
Some also noted with irony that being No. 1 has not helped the current titleholder, G.M., which lost $10.6 billion last year.
¡°Being on top won¡¯t change anything in terms of share price or earnings,¡± said Atushi Kawai, an auto analyst at Mizuho Investors Securities in Tokyo. ¡°In fact, if you look at who¡¯s been No. 1 until now, you see that there really aren¡¯t many benefits at all.¡±
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