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  C O N F I D E N T I A L SEOUL 002827
  
  SIPDIS
  
  SIPDIS
  
  E.O. 12958: DECL: AFTER KOREAN REUNIFICATION
  TAGS: PREL PGOV KS
  SUBJECT: PRESIDENT ROH'S INFORMAL COMMENTS ON OPCON, NORTH
  KOREA, USG, AND DOMESTIC POLITICS
  
  Classified By: A/DCM Joseph Y. Yun. Reasons 1.4 (b/d).
  
  ¢Ò1. (C) Summary and Comment: On August 13, President Roh
  Moo-hyun hosted a dinner for several newspapers which are
  considered "friendly" to the Roh Administration, including
  Hankyoreh, KyungHyang and Seoul Shinmun. Over the course of
  the dinner, Roh made frank comments on a number of issues,
  including OPCON, the U.S.-ROK alliance, North Korea, FTA and
  domestic politics. In Korea, there is no such thing as
  off-the-record, especially when journalists are involved.
  Some of the discussion is now making the rounds. The
  following transcript was given to us by an editor who
  participated in the dinner.
  
  ¢Ò2. (C) Roh's penchant for frank talk has gotten him in
  trouble many times. This is no exception. Roh's open
  admission that he sees ROK forces as aimed at countering the
  Japanese and Chinese, rather than the North Korean forces is
  astounding. Many Koreans would say they are not surprised
  that he has such views, but they are still shocked that he
  would verbalize them with the press. Roh's virtual admission
  that he is a lame duck is depressing to many in the
  Administration, who believe that there's still some work to
  do with seventeen months left in Roh's term. The main image
  that comes across from these remarks is a president who feels
  he has been defeated and under appreciated. End Summary and
  Comment.
  
  -OPCON-
  
  ¢Ò3. (SBU) The OPCON transfer is being pursued based on our
  discussions with the United States. The conservative press,
  however, is assuming the offensive on the issue, although
  they called for it ten year ago. (Roh expressed his
  hostility towards the conservative media.) It is important
  to follow the official statements of the United States
  government. It is rare for the U.S. government to express
  its position on the U.S.-ROK alliance because its statements
  could become the subject of debate. But, the Department of
  Defense and Department of State are coming out and expressing
  their positions. We should not postpone our consultations
  with the U.S. on the issue. Many of the critics question the
  issue of the ROK military capabilities. But we are trying to
  promote the ROK,s military capabilities to have a prepared
  defense posture against Japan and China, not against North
  Korea. The Ministry of National Defense (MND) is in great
  need of equipping itself with the defense equipment that
  Japan has. Talk on the North Korea deterrent misses the main
  point of the issue. (Roh talked about the backwardness of
  North Korea by mentioning what he saw in Pyongyang.) There
  will not be a defense gap after the OPCON transfer. The
  fundamental nature of military sovereignty is to exercise
  what we have.
  
  -OPLAN 5029-
  
  ¢Ò4. (SBU) We have to rework the details of OPlan 5029. The
  current plan fundamentally focuses on U.S. forces going into
  the North and taking control of the situation. The situation
  would become serious if this happens to be the case. China
  does not want U.S. forces coming near its border with the
  North. There is also the concern that the U.S. and China
  will compete over North Korea (without discussing this with
  the ROK) if there is an emergency situation in the country.
  The North has not yet mentioned this during inter-Korean
  military talks, but it is necessary to be prepared for a
  situation where the North brings up the OPCON transfer issue
  during military talks.
  
  -NORTH KOREAN NUCLEAR ISSUE AND SIX PARTY TALKS-
  
  ¢Ò5. (SBU) There is nothing that we can do at the moment. We
  have no choice but to pass the issue to the next
  administration. Meanwhile, we have to manage the situation
  so that it will not change for the worse. I feel frustrated.
  Chief Secretary Song Min-soon says that we should still do
  what we can, but that,s how I feel right now.
  
  ¢Ò6. (SBU) The United States is trying to bring about a
  collapse of the Kim Jong-il regime, so it is difficult to
  communicate our position. On the other hand, North Korea is
  stubborn. South Korea is stuck in the middle. We do not
  have enough information on North Korea so there were many
  times when our judgments had been inaccurate. The National
  Intelligence Service (NIS) also does not know much about the
  North. The official inter-Korean channel is the most
  accurate source of information for us. We had tried in the
  past to use unofficial channels to get information, without
  any success. We were also unable to verify whether the
  unofficial channel was what Kim Jong-il wanted. I still
  think that there would be a chance if we meet Kim Jong-il
  like last year,s meeting between then-Unification Minister
  Chung Dong-young and Kim Jong-il. That is why I would like
  to keep Minister Lee Jong-seok I think he is the most
  reliable channel in directly dealing with the North. If a
  new person replaces him, it would be difficult to judge what
  the North is thinking.
  
  ¢Ò7. (SBU) It does not seem that China is seriously worried
  about the North acquiring nuclear weapons. They do not seem
  to evaluate the North,s nuclear technology very highly.
  
  ¢Ò8. (SBU) The North Korean threat has more to do with the
  North,s relations with other countries rather than its
  nuclear technology. The North Korean case is similar to the
  Indian case, but I do not understand why India is allowed to
  have nuclear weapons (while the North is not). Do the South
  Korean people feel insecure because the United States has
  nuclear weapons? In addition, India and Iran are interested
  in acquiring nuclear weapons, while North Korea is interested
  in selling its nuclear technology.
  
  ¢Ò9. (SBU) Q: What would happen if the United States and China
  authorize South Korea to negotiate with the North?
  
  ¢ÒA. That will never happen with the United States. If there
  was such a possibility, the United States would directly
  negotiate with the North. The U.S. perceives North Korea as
  barbarous. It is like the U.S. is trying to enforce the
  rules of civilization (i.e., democracy, market economy) on
  savages. But the more important issue here is the question
  of fairness. The United States does not treat the North
  fairly.
  
  -U.S. ADMINISTRATION-
  
  ¢Ò10. (SBU) It is difficult to talk with the Bush
  administration on security issues. I was more convinced on
  this matter after recently seeing the United States,
  attitude toward Israel. The situation was OK from the
  Chung-Kim meeting to the Sept. 19 Joint Statement, but the
  situation changed after the United States took up the BDA
  issue.
  
  ¢Ò11. (SBU) Strangely, I think President Bush personally likes
  me. I think this is an asset.
  
  -DOMESTIC POLITICS-
  
  ¢Ò12. (SBU) The issue of defense reforms is a very difficult.
  I would not have thought of pursuing defense reforms if it
  were not for Defense Minister Yoon Kwang-Ung. The
  researchers at the defense-related governmental think-tanks
  were all hired by their predecessors. We have to change
  these people, but that is difficult at the moment.
  
  ¢Ò13. (SBU) When I first went to the Ministry of National
  Defense (MND) after I came into office, I got the impression
  that MND officials were mocking me. When I heard their
  simple comparison of the ROK,s and North Korea,s military
  capabilities, I received the impression that these people
  were thinking that I was just an ordinary person visiting the
  MND. The ROK military,s perception is much behind the times.
  
  ¢Ò14. (SBU) I had not been worried about my popularity until
  recently. Because of this it would be difficult to carry out
  any reforms during the time that is left, so I am thinking
  about just managing affairs. I am even thinking about
  publicly declaring this to the South Korean public.
  
  ¢Ò15. (SBU) I do not know what I have done wrong. If it is a
  question of style, there is nothing much we can do about it.
  I would like someone to specifically point out what I,m
  doing wrong. Issues like polarization, irregular employment,
  income distribution are all problems where we see progress,
  but it is true that these problems remain unresolved. This
  would be the same with the next administration. I have
  carried out reforms within the administration and have worked
  toward changing the Blue House system. The only new issue
  that has emerged during my tenure is the issue of the adult
  video gambling rooms. But the nature of the issue prevents
  the Blue House from getting directly involved in handling the
  problem.
  
  ¢Ò16. (SBU) Right now, I feel conflicted between the thought
  of giving up and doing my best to improve the situation
  before I leave office. It is true that I go back and forth
  between these two thoughts. That does not mean, however,
  that I am inattentive to state affairs and management.
  
  ¢Ò17. (SBU) Chosun, JoongAng, and Dong-A (three largest
  circulating newspapers) all try to drag me down. The press
  reflects the power of the people, but these three newspapers
  have become synonymous with political power. The press needs
  to be broad-minded in order to reflect the power of the
  people, but these three do not even follow this principle. I
  ask my people to give me a report every morning on what these
  papers say. I will make sure that the influence of these
  three newspapers fall, even if this means my popularity rate
  will fall as well. This will also be better for my successor.
  
  ¢Ò18. (SBU) It is less of a burden for me because the OPCON
  transfer issue is becoming more of an issue than the
  U.S.-Korea FTA issue.
  
  ¢Ò19. (SBU) It would be more difficult for me if 1,000 people
  who had shared my thoughts were to have demonstrations
  calling for my resignation than 10,000 conservatives
  demonstrating.
  
  -US-ROK FTA-
  
  ¢Ò20. (SBU) This is an option where we can be winners. It is
  possible to respond to potential agricultural damages.
  One-third of the agricultural industry is competitive, the
  other third would become competitive through governmental
  assistance, and the last third is not competitive.
  
  ¢Ò21. (SBU) It is also important how we are treated by
  stronger countries. The United States picked South Korea as
  a FTA partner among 25 countries that had proposed a FTA with
  the U.S. (Roh joked afterwards that some people could call
  him pro-American if they heard him say this.)
  STANTON
  http://wikileaks.org/cable/2006/08/06SEOUL2827.html
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