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42. Can too many brainy people be a dangerous thing?
-Some academics argue that unhappy elites lead to political instability
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TEN YEARS ago Peter Turchin, a scientist at the University of Connecticut, made a startling prediction in Nature. ¡°The next decade is likely to be a period of growing instability in the United States and western Europe,¡± he asserted, pointing in part to the ¡°overproduction of young graduates with advanced degrees¡±. The subsequent surge in populism in Europe, the unexpected votes in 2016 for Brexit and then for President Donald Trump in America, and a wave of protests from the gilets jaunes to Black Lives Matter, has made Mr Turchin something of a celebrity in certain circles, and has piqued economists¡¯ interest in the discipline of ¡°cliodynamics¡±, which uses maths to model historical change. Mr Turchin¡¯s emphasis on the ¡°overproduction of elites¡± raises uncomfortable questions, but also offers useful policy lessons.
As far back as ancient Rome and imperial China, Mr Turchin shows, societies have veered from periods of political stability to instability, often at intervals of about 50 years. Consider America. Every pundit knows that Congress has become gridlocked, with Democrats and Republicans unwilling to compromise with each other. Fewer know that it was also highly polarised around 1900, before becoming more co-operative in the mid-20th century.
What causes these lurches from calm to chaos? Mr Turchin views societies as large, complex systems that are subject to certain patterns, if not laws. That is an entirely different approach from much of academic history, with its preference for small-scale, microcosmic studies, argues Niall Ferguson of Stanford University.
42. ¶È¶ÈÇÑ »ç¶÷ÀÌ ³Ê¹« ¸¹Àº °ÍÀº À§ÇèÇÑ°¡?
-ÀϺΠÇÐÀÚµéÀº ºÒ¸¸½º·¯¿î ¿¤¸®Æ®µéÀÌ Á¤Ä¡Àû ºÒ¾ÈÀ» ÀÏÀ¸Å²´Ù°í ÁÖÀåÇÑ´Ù.
10³â Àü¿¡ Connecticut´ëÇÐÀÇ °úÇÐÀÚÀÎ Peter TurchinÀº Natureò¼¿¡ ³î¶ó¿î ¿¹¾ðÀ» ¹ßÇ¥ Çß¾ú´Ù. ¡°°íµîÇÐÀ§(¼®¡¤¹Ú»ç)¸¦ °¡Áø ÀþÀº Á¹¾÷»ýÀÇ °úÀ×»ý»ê¡±À» ºÎºÐÀûÀ¸·Î ÁöÀûÇÏ¸é¼ ±×´Â ¡°´ÙÀ½ 10³âÀº ¹Ì±¹°ú ¼ºÎ À¯·´¿¡¼ Á¡ÁõÇÏ´Â ºÒ¾ÈÁ¤ÀÇ ½Ã±â°¡ µÉ °ÍÀÌ´Ù¡±¶ó°í ÁÖÀåÇß¾ú´Ù. ±× ÈÄ(subsequent) À¯·´¿¡¼ÀÇ ´ëÁß¿µÇÕÁÖÀÇÀÇ ÍÔðÍ(°íÁ¶: surge)¿Í, 2016³â ¿¹»ó ¹ÛÀÇ Brexit(¿µ±¹ÀÇ À¯·´¿¬ÇÕ Å»Åð) Âù¼ºÅõÇ¥(votes for: ÁöÁö ÅõÇ¥)¿Í ±× ´ÙÀ½ÀÇ ¹Ì±¹ÀÇ Donald Trump ´ëÅë·É ´ç¼± ÅõÇ¥¿Í, ±×¸®°í gilets jaunes(³ë¶ûÁ¶³¢: ÇÁ¶û½ºÀÇ ³ë¶õ Á¶³¢ ÀÔÀº ³ëµ¿ÀÚµéÀÇ Ç×ÀÇ ½ÃÀ§)·ÎºÎÅÍ Black Lives Matter(ÈæÀÎ ¸ñ¼ûµµ Áß¿äÇÏ´Ù)¿¡ À̸£±â±îÁö ÀÏ·ÃÀÇ ÀúÇ×ÀÇ Æĵµ´Â Mr TurchinÀ» ÀϺΠ»çȸ(circle)¿¡¼´Â Àú¸íÀλç·Î ¸¸µé¾ú°í °æÁ¦ÇÐÀÚµéÀ» ÀÚ±ØÇÏ¿©(pique) ¿ª»çº¯ÈÀÇ ¸ðÇüÀ» ¸¸µé±â À§ÇØ ¼öÇÐÀ» ÀÌ¿ëÇÏ´Â ¡°cliodynamics¡± ºÐ¾ß(discipline: Çй®)¿¡ °ü½ÉÀ» °¡Áö°Ô ÇÏ¿´´Ù. Mr TurchinÀÇ ¡°¿¤¸®Æ®ÀÇ °úÀ×»ý»ê¡±¿¡ ´ëÇÑ °Á¶´Â ºÒÆíÇÑ Àǹ®À» Á¦±âÇÏÁö¸¸ À¯¿ëÇÑ Á¤Ã¥Àû ±³ÈÆÀ» Á¦°øÇÑ´Ù.
°í´ë ·Î¸¶¿Í Áß±¹Á¦±¹±îÁö ¸Ö¸® µÇµ¹¾Æ°¡¼ º¸¸é, Á¾Á¾ 50³â°£ÀÇ °£°ÝÀ¸·Î, Á¤Ä¡Àû ¾ÈÁ¤±â·ÎºÎÅÍ ºÒ¾ÈÁ¤À¸·Î ¹æÇâÀ» ¹Ù²Ù¾î ¿Ô´Ù´Â °ÍÀ» Mr TurchinÀº º¸¿© ÁØ´Ù. ¹Ì±¹À» °í·ÁÇØ º¸ÀÚ. ¹Ì±¹ ÀÇȸ´Â °øÈ´ç ÀÇ¿øµé°ú ¹ÎÁÖ´ç ÀÇ¿øµéÀÌ ¼·Î ŸÇùÇÒ Àǻ簡 ¾ø±â ¶§¹®¿¡ ïÎôò(Á¤Ã¼)µÇ¾î ÀÖ´Ù´Â °ÍÀ» ¸ðµç Àü¹®°¡´Â ¾È´Ù. º¸´Ù ÀûÀº ¼öÀÇ »ç¶÷µéÀÌ ÀÇȸ´Â 20¼¼±â Áß¿±¿¡ ´Ù½Ã Çùµ¿ÀûÀÌ µÇ±â Àü, 1900³â°æ¿¡´Â ºÐ±ØȵǾî ÀÖ¾ú´Ù´Â °ÍÀ» ¾Ë°í ÀÖ´Ù. ¹«¾ùÀÌ ÀÌ·± Æò¿ÂÀ¸·ÎºÎÅÍ È¥µ·À¸·Î ºñƲ(lurch)°Å¸®°Ô ÇÏ´Â ¿øÀÎÀÌ µÇ´Â°¡? Mr TurchinÀº »çȸ¸¦ ¹ýÄ¢Àº ¾Æ´ÒÁö¶óµµ ¾î¶² Çü½Ä(pattern)¿¡ º¹Á¾ÇÏ´Â Å©°í º¹ÀâÇÑ Á¶Á÷ü(system)·Î °£ÁÖÇÑ´Ù. ±×°ÍÀº ¼Ò±Ô¸ðÀûÀÌ°í ¹Ì¼¼ÇÑ ¿¬±¸¸¦ ¼±È£ÇÏ´Â Á¤Åë(academic) ¿ª»çÇÐÀÇ ¸¹Àº ºÎºÐ°ú´Â ÀüÀûÀ¸·Î ´Ù¸¥ ¿¬±¸¹æ¹ý(approach)À̶ó°í Stanford´ëÇÐÀÇ Niall FergusonÀÌ ÁÖÀåÇÑ´Ù.
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In a paper published this year Mr Turchin (with Andrey Korotayev of the Higher School of Economics in Russia) examines the prediction of instability he made in 2010. His forecast model contains many elements, but like Karl Marx Mr Turchin seems to believe that ¡°the history of all hitherto existing society is the history of class struggles.¡± Where Marx focused on the proletariat, though, Mr Turchin is more interested in the elite—and how its members struggle against each other.
Who counts as the elite, and how competition manifests itself, varies from place to place; one example could be a large number of highly educated folk relative to the number of government offices (and therefore jobs). But a struggle is most likely when economic inequality is high. The rewards for being at the top are then especially lucrative, both in terms of earning power and political influence, and those who miss out feel their loss more keenly. The feeling of resentment is particularly strong among people brought up to believe that they ought to be in the elite. Worse still, societies tend to produce ever more would-be elites, in part because access to education tends to improve over time. Mr Turchin sees all this as a recipe for political chaos. Articulate, educated people rebel, producing a scramble for political and economic power. Elites stop co-operating, counter-elites emerge, and order breaks down.
±Ý³â¿¡ ¹ßÇ¥µÈ ³í¹®¿¡¼ Mr TurchinÀº (·¯½Ã¾Æ °æÁ¦ÇÐ °íµî ¿¬±¸¿ø ´ëÇÐÀÇ Andrey Korotayev¿Í ÇÔ²²) ±×°¡ 2010³â¿¡ ¸»ÇÑ ºÒ¾ÈÁ¤ ¿¹¾ðÀ» Á¡°ËÇÏ°í ÀÖ´Ù. ±×ÀÇ ¿¹º¸¸ðÇüÀº ¸¹Àº ¿ä¼Ò¸¦ Æ÷ÇÔÇÏ°í ÀÖÁö¸¸ Mr TurchinÀº Karl Marxó·³ ¡°Áö±Ý±îÁö Á¸ÀçÇÏ´Â ¸ðµç »çȸÀÇ ¿ª»ç´Â °è±ÞÅõÀïÀÇ ¿ª»ç¡±¶ó°í ¹Ï´Â °Íó·³ º¸ÀδÙ. ±×·¯³ª Marx°¡ ÇÁ·Ñ·¹Å¸¸®¾Æ¿¡ ÃÊÁ¡À» ¸ÂÃá ¹Ý¸é¿¡ Mr TurchinÀº ¿¤¸®Æ®¿¡ ´õ ¸¹Àº °ü½ÉÀ» °¡Áö°í ÀÖ´Ù¡ª±×¸®°í »çȸ ±¸¼º¿øµéÀÌ ¼·Î ¼·Î ¾î¶»°Ô ÅõÀïÇÏ´Â °¡¿¡(´õ ¸¹Àº °ü½ÉÀ» °¡Áö°í ÀÖ´Ù).
´©°¡ ¿¤¸®Æ®·Î °£ÁÖµÇ°í °æÀïÀÌ ¾î¶² ÇüÅ·Π³ªÅ¸³ª´ÂÁö´Â ³ª¶ó(place)¸¶´Ù ´Ù¸£´Ù. ÇϳªÀÇ ¿¹´Â Á¤ºÎ °üÁ÷(±×·¡¼ ÀÏÀÚ¸®)ÀÇ ¼ö¿¡ ºñÇؼ(relative to) °íµµ·Î ±³À°¹ÞÀº ¸¹Àº »ç¶÷ÀÇ ¼ö°¡ µÉ ¼ö ÀÖÀ» °ÍÀÌ´Ù. ±×·¯³ª ÅõÀïÀº °æÁ¦Àû ºÒÆòµîÀÌ ½ÉÇÒ ¶§¿¡ °¡Àå ¸¹ÀÌ ÀϾÙ. ±×·¯¸é °íÀ§Á÷(top)¿¡ ÀÖ´Â °Í¿¡ ´ëÇÑ º¸»óÀº ¼öÀÍ´É·Â(earning power)°ú Á¤Ä¡Àû ¿µÇâ·ÂÀÇ ÀÔÀå¿¡¼ Ưº°È÷ À¯¸®Çϸç(µ·¹úÀÌ°¡ ÀߵǸç) ±×¸®°í ±×·± ±âȸ¸¦ ³õÄ¡´Â(miss out) »ç¶÷µéÀº ±×µéÀÇ ¼ÕÇظ¦ ´õ ¿¹¹ÎÇÏ°Ô ´À³¤´Ù. ºÐ³ëÀÇ °¨Á¤Àº ´ç¿¬È÷ ¿¤¸®Æ®°¡ µÇ¾î¾ß ÇÑ´Ù°í ¹ÏÀ¸¸ç ¼ºÀåÇÑ »ç¶÷µé Áß¿¡¼ Ưº°È÷ °ÇÏ´Ù. ´õ¿í´õ ´õ ³ª»Û °ÍÀº, »çȸ´Â ´õ¿í´õ ¸¹Àº ¿¤¸®Æ® Áö¸ÁÀÚ¸¦ »ý»êÇÏ´Â °æÇâÀÌ ÀÖÀ¸¸ç ÀÌ°ÍÀº ºÎºÐÀûÀ¸·Î Àå±â°£¿¡ °ÉÃÄ(over time) ±³À°¿¡ ´ëÇÑ Á¢±ÙÀÌ °³¼±µÇ´Â °æÇâÀÌ Àֱ⠶§¹®ÀÌ´Ù. Mr TurchinÀº ÀÌ ¸ðµç °ÍÀ» Á¤Ä¡Àû È¥¶õÀ» À§ÇÑ ºñ¹ý(recipe)À¸·Î °£ÁÖÇÑ´Ù. åëܪ(¾ðº¯)ÀÌ ÁÁ°í(articulate) ±³À°À» ¹ÞÀº »ç¶÷(´ëÁ¹)µéÀº, Á¤Ä¡Àû °æÁ¦Àû ±Ç·ÂÀ» À§ÇÑ ÀïÅ»ÀüÀ» ¹úÀ̸é¼, ¹Ý¶õÀ» ÀÏÀ¸Å²´Ù. ¿¤¸®Æ®µéÀº Çùµ¿Çϱ⸦ Áß´ÜÇÏ°í, Ú㿤·¹Æ®°¡ ÃâÇöÇÏ°í ±×·¡¼ Áú¼°¡ ºØ±«µÈ´Ù.
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The argument undoubtedly papers over historical nuance. Yet focusing on dissatisfied elites is not a bad way of understanding political instability. Hugh Trevor-Roper, a historian, noted that ¡°social crises are caused not by the clear-cut opposition of mutually exclusive interests but by the tug-of-war of opposite interests within one body.¡± The French Revolution was not primarily the product of misery but instead of a battle between an underemployed educated class and hereditary landowners. Historians identify ¡°the problem of an excess of educated men¡± as contributing to Europe¡¯s revolutions of 1848. Mr Turchin suggests that though slavery was the proximate cause of the American civil war, a more fundamental one was resentment from up-and-coming Northern capitalists towards stuck-in-their-ways Southerners.
Elite overproduction can also help explain the malaise gripping the rich world of late. It has become extraordinarily difficult for a young person to achieve elite status, even if she works hard and goes to the best university. House prices are so high that only inheritors stand a chance of emulating the living conditions of their parents. The power of a few ¡°superstar¡± firms means that there are few genuinely prestigious jobs around. Mr Turchin reckons that each year America produces some 25,000 ¡°surplus¡± lawyers. Over 30% of British graduates are ¡°overeducated¡± relative to their jobs.
±× ÁÖÀåÀº ºÐ¸íÈ÷ ¿ª»çÀÇ ¹Ì¹¦ÇÑ Â÷ÀÌ(nuance)¸¦ ¼û±â°í ÀÖ´Ù(paper over: Â÷À̸¦ µ¤¾î ¹ö¸®´Ù, ¼û±â´Ù). ±×·¯³ª ºÒ¸¸À» Ç°°í ÀÖ´Â ¿¤¸®Æ®¿¡ ÃÊÁ¡À» ¸ÂÃß´Â °ÍÀº Á¤Ä¡Àû ºÒ¾ÈÀ» ÀÌÇØÇϱâ À§ÇÑ ³ª»Û ¹æ¹ýÀº ¾Æ´Ï´Ù. ¿ª»çÇÐÀÚ Hugh Trevor-Roper´Â ¡°»çȸÀû À§±â´Â »óÈ£ ¹èŸÀûÀÎ ÀÌÀÍ Áý´Ü°£ÀÇ ¼±¸íÇÑ ¹Ý´ë¿¡ ÀÇÇؼ°¡ ¾Æ´Ï°í ÇÑ ¸ö ¾È¿¡ ÀÖ´Â ¹Ý´ë Áý´Ü°£ÀÇ Áٴٸ®±â¿¡ ÀÇÇؼ ¾ß±âµÈ´Ù.¡±¶ó°í ¾ð±ÞÇÏ¿´´Ù. ÇÁ¶û½º Çõ¸íÀº º»·¡ ºñÂüÇÔ(»ýÈ°ÀÇ)ÀÇ »ê¹°ÀÌ ¾Æ´Ï°í ´ë½Å ½ÇÁ÷»óÅÂÀÇ ±³À°¹ÞÀº °è±Þ°ú ¼¼½À ÅäÁö ¼ÒÀ¯ÀÚ°£ÀÇ ÀüÅõÀÇ »ê¹°À̾ú´Ù. ¿ª»ç°¡µéÀº ¡°±³À°¹ÞÀº »ç¶÷µéÀÇ °ú´Ù¹®Á¦°¡ 1848³â À¯·´Çõ¸í¿¡ ±â¿©ÇÑ °Í¡±°ú µ¿ÀÏÇÑ °ÍÀ¸·Î °£ÁÖÇÑ´Ù. Mr TurchinÀº ºñ·Ï ³ë¿¹Á¦µµ°¡ ¹Ì±¹ ³²ºÏÀüÀï(civil war:³»¶õ)ÀÇ °¡Àå °¡±î¿î ¿øÀÎÀÌÁö¸¸ ´õ ±Ùº»ÀûÀÎ ¿øÀÎÀº ÁøÃëÀûÀÎ ºÏºÎ ÀÚº»°¡µéÀÇ ¿Ï°íÇÑ ³²ºÎÀε鿡 ´ëÇÑ Áõ¿À¿´´Ù°í ¾Ï½ÃÇÑ´Ù.
¿¤¸®Æ® °ú´Ù»ý»êÀº ¶ÇÇÑ Ãֱ٠ݣÏÐ(ºÎ±¹)µéÀ» Àå¾ÇÇÏ°í ÀÖ´Â ºÒÄè°¨(malaise)ÀÇ ÀÌÀ¯¸¦ ¼³¸íÇÏ´Â µ¥ µµ¿òÀ» ÁÙ ¼ö ÀÖ´Ù. ÀþÀº »ç¶÷ÀÌ ¿½ÉÈ÷ ÀÏÇÏ°í ÃÖ°íÀÇ ´ëÇÐÀ» ³ª¿Ô´Ù ÇÏ´õ¶óµµ ¿¤¸®Æ® ÁöÀ§¸¦ ¼ºÃëÇÏ´Â °ÍÀÌ Æ¯º°È÷ ¾î·Æ´Ù. ÁÖÅð¡°ÝÀÌ ³Ê¹«³ª ³ô¾Æ¼ À¯»ê »ó¼ÓÀÚ¸¸ÀÌ ±×µé ºÎ¸ðµéÀÇ »ýÈ°¼öÁØ(conditions: Á¶°Ç, ÁöÀ§)¿¡ ÇÊÀûÇÏ´Â(emulate: ¿ì¿À» ´ÙÅõ´Ù) ±âȸ¸¦ °¡Áú ¼ö ÀÖ´Ù. ¼Ò¼öÀÇ "superstar" ȸ»çÀÇ ±Ç¼¼´Â »ç¹æ¿¡ Áø½Ç·Î ¼¼»ó¿¡ ¾Ë·ÁÁø À¯¸íÇÑ(prestigious) ÀÏÀÚ¸®´Â °ÅÀÇ ¾ø´Ù´Â °ÍÀ» ÀǹÌÇÑ´Ù. Mr TurchinÀº ¹Ì±¹Àº ¸Å³â 25,000¸íÀÇ ¡°°úÀס± º¯È£»ç¸¦ »ý»êÇÏ°í ÀÖ´Ù°í °è»êÇÑ´Ù. ¿µ±¹ ´ëÇÐÁ¹¾÷ÀÚÀÇ 30% ÀÌ»óÀÌ ±×µéÀÇ ÀÏÀÚ¸®¿¡ ºñÇؼ ¡°°úÀ× ±³À°¹ÞÀº Àڵ顱ÀÌ´Ù.
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All this goes some way to explaining an apparently puzzling trend: why apparently well-off people are drawn to radicalism. Under Jeremy Corbyn Britain¡¯s Labour Party attracted more upper-middle- and middle-class folk than it used to, even as it moved further left from the Tories; its lead among recent graduates was clear. Joe Biden¡¯s lead over Bernie Sanders in opinion polls during the Democratic primaries was far smaller among college-educated Americans than among those who did not finish high school.
Mr Turchin¡¯s theories predict that political tremors eventually subside. ¡°Sooner or later most people begin to yearn for the return of stability and an end to fighting,¡± he argues. Already the data show that support for both left- and right-wing populist parties in Europe is waning. Polls suggest Mr Trump will soon be voted out of office. Another option for those looking to avoid instability is to reduce the number of aspiring elites. Boris Johnson, Britain¡¯s prime minister, has pressed for better vocational education, saying that ¡°We need to recognise that a significant and growing minority of young people leave university and work in a non-graduate job.¡±
Yet enlightened elites can prevent the emergence of political instability in more effective ways. In the early 20th century American reformers raised inheritance taxes to prevent the emergence of a hereditary aristocracy, and engaged in massive trust-busting. Modernising urban-planning systems could lower housing costs, and deregulating labour markets would help create good jobs for ¡°excess¡± elites. Mr Turchin¡¯s analysis of the structural forces governing societies is an intriguing explanation of political unrest. But cliodynamics need not be destiny.
ÀÌ ¸ðµç °ÍÀÌ ºÐ¸íÈ÷ ¿µ¹® ¸ð¸¦ °æÇâÀ» ¼³¸íÇÏ´Â µ¥ µµ¿òÀ» ÁØ´Ù(go someway to): ¿Ö ºÐ¸íÈ÷ ºÎÀ¯ÇÑ »ç¶÷µéÀÌ ±ÞÁøÁÖÀÇ¿¡ ²ø¸®´Â°¡? Jeremy Corbyn(±ÞÁøÁÂÆÄ: ¿µ±¹ ³ëµ¿´ç ´ç¼ö ¿ªÀÓ)ÁöµµÇÏ¿¡¼ ¿µ±¹ ³ëµ¿´çÀÌ Áß»ó·ù °è±ÞÀÇ »ç¶÷µéÀ» °ú°Åº¸´Ùµµ ´õ ¸¹ÀÌ ²ø¾î´ç±â´Â°¡?: ½ÉÁö¾î ³ëµ¿´çÀÌ Tories(º¸¼ö´ç)·ÎºÎÅÍ ´õ ¸Ö¸® ¿òÁ÷¿´´Âµ¥µµ; ÃÖ±Ù ´ëÇÐÁ¹¾÷ÀÚ¿¡°Ô ³ëµ¿´çÀÇ ¿ì¼¼´Â ¸í¹éÇÏ¿´´Ù. ¹ÎÁÖ´ç ´ëÅë·É Èĺ¸ ¼±Á¤ ¼±°Å(primaries)±â°£ Áß ½Ç½ÃÇÑ ¿©·ÐÁ¶»ç¿¡¼ Bernie Sanders(¹Ì±¹ ¹ÎÁÖ´ç: ±ÞÁøÁÂÆÄ)¿¡ ´ëÇÑ Joe BidenÀÇ ¿ì¼¼´Â(Joe BidenÀ» ¼±È£ÇÏ´Â »ç¶÷Àº) °íµîÇб³¸¦ Á¹¾÷ÇÏÁö ¸øÇÑ »ç¶÷µé º¸´Ù´Â ´ëÁ¹ ¹Ì±¹Àεé Áß¿¡¼ ÈξÀ ´õ Àû¾ú´Ù.
Mr TurchinÀÇ Çм³Àº Á¤Ä¡Àû Áøµ¿Àº °á±¹ ÁøÁ¤ µÉ °ÍÀ̶ó°í ¿¹»óÇÑ´Ù. ¡°Á¶¸¸°£¿¡ ´ëºÎºÐÀÇ »ç¶÷Àº ¾ÈÁ¤ÀÇ È¸º¹°ú ½Î¿òÀÇ Á¾°áÀ» µ¿°æÇϱ⠽ÃÀÛÇÑ´Ù.¡±¶ó°í ±×´Â ÁÖÀåÇÑ´Ù. ÀÌ¹Ì ÀÚ·áµéÀº À¯·´¿¡¼ ÁÂÀÍ°ú ¿ìÀÍ ´ëÁß¿µÇÕÁÖÀÇ Á¤´ç¿¡ ´ëÇÑ ÁöÁö°¡ ¼èÅðÇÏ°í ÀÖ´Ù´Â °ÍÀ» º¸¿©ÁØ´Ù. ¿©·Ð Á¶»ç´Â Mr Trump°¡ ¼±°Å¿¡¼ °ð ÅðÃâ µÉ °ÍÀ̶ó°í ¾Ï½ÃÇÑ´Ù. ºÒ¾ÈÁ¤À» ÇÇÇϱ⸦ ±â´ëÇÏ´Â(look to) »ç¶÷µéÀ» À§ÇÑ ¶Ç ÇϳªÀÇ ¼±ÅÃÀº Æ÷ºÎ°¡ Å«(aspiring: ¿¸ÁÇÏ´Â, ¾ß½ÉÂù) ¿¤¸®Æ®ÀÇ ¼ö¸¦ ÁÙÀÌ´Â °ÍÀÌ´Ù. ¿µ±¹¼ö»ó Boris JohnsonÀº ¡°¿ì¸®´Â Áß¿äÇÏ°í(significant: ÀÇ¹Ì ÀÖ´Â, ¼ÒÁßÇÑ) Á¡ÁõÇÏ´Â ¼Ò¼öÀÇ ÀþÀºÀ̵éÀÌ ´ëÇÐÀ» Á¹¾÷ÇÏ°í Þª´ëÁ¹ Á÷Àå¿¡¼ ÀÏÇÏ°í ÀÖ´Ù´Â °ÍÀ» ÀνÄÇÒ ÇÊ¿ä°¡ ÀÖ½À´Ï´Ù.¡±¶ó°í ¸»ÇÏ¸é¼ º¸´Ù ´õ ³ªÀº Á÷¾÷±³À°À» °Á¶ÇÏ¿´´Ù.
±×·¯³ª °è¸ùµÈ Áö½ÄÀÎÀº º¸´Ù ´õ È¿°úÀûÀÎ ¹æ¹ýÀ¸·Î Á¤Ä¡Àû ºÒ¾ÈÁ¤ÀÇ ÃâÇöÀ» ¿¹¹æÇÒ ¼ö ÀÖ´Ù. 20¼¼±â ÃÊ¿¡ ¹Ì±¹ÀÇ °³Çõ°¡µéÀº ¼¼½À ±ÍÁ·Á¦µµÀÇ ÃâÇöÀ» ¿¹¹æÇϱâ À§ÇÏ¿© »ó¼Ó¼¼¸¦ ÀλóÇÏ¿´°í ´ë±Ô¸ð ±â¾÷¿¬ÇÕ Æı«¿¡ Âü¿©ÇÏ¿´´Ù. µµ½ÃÈ °èȹ½Ã½ºÅÛÀ» Çö´ëÈÇÏ´Â °ÍÀº ÁÖÅð¡°ÝÀ» ³·Ãâ ¼ö ÀÖ¾ú°í ³ëµ¿½ÃÀåÀÇ ±ÔÁ¦¸¦ ¾ø¾Ö´Â °ÍÀº ¡°°úÀס± ¿¤¸®Æ®¸¦ À§ÇÑ ÁÁÀº ÀÏÀÚ¸®¸¦ âÃâÇÏ´Â µ¥ µµ¿òÀÌ µÉ °ÍÀÌ´Ù. »çȸ¸¦ ÅëÄ¡ÇÏ´Â ±¸Á¶Àû ¼¼·Â¿¡ ´ëÇÑ Mr TurchinÀÇ ºÐ¼®Àº Á¤Ä¡ ºÒ¾È¿¡ ´ëÇÑ Èï¹Ì¸¦ ÀھƳ»´Â ¼³¸íÀÌ´Ù. ±×·¯³ª cliodynamics °¡ ¿î¸íÀÌ µÉ ÇÊ¿ä´Â ¾ø´Ù.