1981³â¿¡ ÂïÀº »çÁø. ±èÁ¤ÀÏÀÇ Ã³Çü ¼ºÇý¶û, µþ À̳²¿Á, ¾Æµé ÀÌÀϳ², ±èÁ¤ÀÏ Àå³² ±èÁ¤ÀÏ, ±×¸®°í ±èÁ¤ÀÏ À§¿øÀå.(¿ÞÂÊ À§ºÎÅÍ ½Ã°è¹æÇâ) AFP PHOTO |
ÀÚÀ¯ ¾Æ½Ã¾Æ ¹æ¼ÛÀº ºÏÇÑ »óȲ¿¡ Á¤ÅëÇÑ ºÎ½Ã ÇàÁ¤ºÎÀÇ °íÀ§°ü¸®¿ÍÀÇ ´Üµ¶ ȸ°ßÀ» ¿À´Ã ºÎÅÍ 3ȸ¿¡ °ÉÃÄ ¹æ¼ÛÇÕ´Ï´Ù. ÀÌ ¹æ¼Û¿¡ ³ª¿Â ºÎ½Ã ÇàÁ¤ºÎÀÇ °íÀ§ °ü¸®´Â À̸§°ú Á÷Ã¥À» ¹àÈ÷Áö¾Ê´Â Á¶°ÇÀ¸·Î ÀÚÀ¯ ¾Æ½Ã¾Æ ¹æ¼Û°úÀÇ ÀÎÅͺ信 ÀÀÇß½À´Ï´Ù.
±èÁ¤ÀÏ ±¹¹æÀ§¿øÀåÀÇ »ç¸Á ÈÄ ºÏÇÑ¿¡´Â ¡°±¹¹æÀ§¿øȸÀÇ°¡ Áß½ÉÀÌ µÅ À强Åð°Àº ³ëµ¿´ç Àλç¿Í ±è¿Á°°Àº Ãø±Ù ºñ¼Áø, ±¹¹æÀ§¿øȸ ÀϺΠ±ººÎ ÁöµµÀÚ, ±×¸®°í ±èÀϼºÀÇ ¼¼ ¾Æµé °¡¿îµ¥ ÇÑ »ç¶÷À̳ª ȤÀº ±× ÀÌ»ó°ú ÇùÁ¶ÇØ ºÏÇÑÀ» À̲ø¾î°¡´Â ¿¬ÇÕ ÁöµµºÎ(united leadership)°¡ µé¾î¼³ °¡´É¼ºÀÌ Å©´Ù¡±°í ºÏÇÑ »óȲ¿¡ Á¤ÅëÇÑ ºÎ½Ã ÇàÁ¤ºÎ °íÀ§ °ü¸®°¡ ÀÚÀ¯¾Æ½Ã¾Æ¹æ¼Û¿¡ ¹àÇû½À´Ï´Ù.
±èÁ¤ÀÏ »çÈÄ ºÏÇÑÀÇ ÈÄ°è ±¸µµ¿Í °ü·ÃÇØ Àü¹®°¡µéÀº ±×µ¿¾È ¼¼½ÀÀ» ÅëÇÑ À¯ÀÏÁö¹èÁ¦Ã¼, ¶Ç´Â ±ººÎ¿¡ ÀÇÇÑ Áý´ÜÁöµµÃ¼Á¦, ȤÀº ±èÁ¤ÀÏ ÀÌ¿Ü Á¦3ÀÇ Àι°¿¡ ÀÇÇÑ ±Ç·Â ½Â°è¸¦ ºñ·ÔÇÑ ´Ù¾çÇÑ ºÐ¼®À» Á¦±âÇßÁö¸¸, ¹Ì±¹ Á¤ºÎ ³»¿¡¼µµ ¼Õ²ÅÈ÷´Â ºÏÇÑÅëÀÎ ÀÌ °íÀ§ °ü¸®°¡ »õ·Î¿î ÇüÅÂÀÇ Áý´ÜÁöµµ üÁ¦ÀÎ ¡®¿¬ÇÕ ÁöµµºÎ¡¯¸¦ °Å·ÐÇϱä À̹øÀÌ Ã³À½ÀÔ´Ï´Ù.
°ú°Å ºÏÇÑÀ» ´Ù·ç¸¥ ÇÙ½É ºÎó¿Í ±¹¹«ºÎ¸¦ µÎ·ç °ÅÄ£ ÀÌ °íÀ§ °ü¸®´Â ÀÌ¾î ¡°±èÀϼºÀÌ 80¿©¼¼±îÁö »ì¾Ò°í, ±èÁ¤Àϵµ ¿ÃÇØ ³ªÀÌ°¡ 66¼¼¿¡ À̸¥ Á¡À» °¨¾ÈÇÒ ¶§ ÀÚ½ÅÀÇ ÈÄ°è¿¡ ´ëÇØ »ý°¢Çغ¸±â ½ÃÀÛÇØ¾ß ÇÒ °Í¡±À̶ó¸é¼ ¡°±×·¯³ª ¾ÕÀ¸·Î ºÏÇÑ¿¡ °ú°Å ±èÀϼºÀÌ ¾Æµé ±èÁ¤ÀÏ¿¡°Ô ±Ç·ÂÀ» ¹°·ÁÁØ °Í°ú °°Àº ¹æ½ÄÀÇ Èİ豸µµ°¡ ¹Ýµå½Ã ÀÚ¸® Àâ´Â´Ù´Â º¸ÀåÀº ¾ø´Ù¡±¸é¼ ±èÁ¤ÀÏ ÀÌÈÄ ¡®¿¬ÇÕ ÁöµµºÎ¡¯ÀÇ µîÀå °¡´É¼º¿¡ »ó´çÇÑ ¹«°Ô¸¦ µÎ¾ú½À´Ï´Ù.
±×·¯³ª Áö³ 1948³â Á¤±Ç â°Ç ÀÌ·¡ À¯ÀÏ Áö¹èüÁ¦·Î ±»¾îÁ®¿Â ºÏÇÑ¿¡¼ Áý´Ü ÁöµµÃ¼Á¦ÀÎ ¡®¿¬ÇÕ ÁöµµºÎ¡¯°¡ ¾ó¸¶³ª Áö¼Ó¼ºÀ» °¡Áú ¼ö ÀÖÀ»Áö¿¡ ´ëÇؼ ÀÌ °íÀ§ °ü¸®´Â ¡°¸»ÇÏ±ä ¾î·ÆÁö¸¸, ºÏÇÑÀÇ ±¹³» »óȲ¿¡ ´Þ·ÁÀÖ´Ù¡±°í ¹àÇû½À´Ï´Ù.
ÀÌ °íÀ§ °ü¸®´Â ±¸Ã¼ÀûÀ¸·Î ÀÌ¿Í °ü·ÃÇØ ¡°ºÏÇÑÀÌ ÁֹεéÀ» ¸Ô¿© »ì¸®·Á¸é °æÁ¦°³¹ßÀ» ÇØ¾ß ÇÏ°í, ¶Ç Áֹε鿡°Ô ¹Ì·¡¿¡ ´ëÇÑ Àü¸ÁÀ» ÁÖ±â À§Çؼ± ´Ù¸¥ ³ª¶ó¿Í ÃÖ»óÀÇ °ü°è¸¦ °®°í ÀÖÁö ¸øÇÏ°í ÀÖ´Â ÇöÀçÀÇ Ã³Áö¿¡¼ ¹þ¾î³ª¾ß ÇÑ´Ù¡±°í ÁöÀûÇÏ°í, ¡°ºÏÇÑÀÌ ÇÙ¹®Á¦¸¦ ÇØ°áÇÏÁö ¸øÇÏ´Â ÇÑ ÇöÀç ÇÙ½ÇÇèÀ¸·Î À¯¿£ Á¦À縦 ¹Þ°í ÀÖ´Â »óȲ¿¡¼ ¿ªµ¿ÀûÀÎ ±¹°¡(vibrant nation)·Î ¹ßµ¸¿òÇϱä Á¤¸» Èûµé °Í¡±À̶ó°í Àü¸ÁÇß½À´Ï´Ù. ƯÈ÷ ÀÌ °ü¸®´Â ¡°ÇÑ ³ª¶óÀÇ ¿ªµ¿¼º°ú °ü·ÃµÈ ±¹³», ±¹Á¦ Á¤Ã¥Àº ±× ³ª¶ó ÁöµµºÎÀÇ »ý¸í·Â°úµµ ¿¬°èµÅ ÀÖ´Ù¡±°í ¸»Çؼ ÇâÈÄ ºÏÇÑÀÇ ¡®¿¬ÇÕ ÁöµµºÎ¡¯ÀÇ Áö¼Ó¼º ¿©ºÎµµ ºÏÇÑ ÇÙ¹®Á¦ ÇØ°á°ú Á÷°áµÅ ÀÖÀ½À» ½Ã»çÇß½À´Ï´Ù.
ÀÌ °íÀ§ °ü¸®´Â ƯÈ÷ ±èÁ¤ÀÏ À¯°í½Ã ±Ç·ÂÀÇ ÇÙÀ¸·Î ºÎ»óÇÒ ¼ö ÀÖ´Â Àι°·Î ¸ÅÁ¦ÀÎ À强Åðú ³× ¹ø° ºÎÀÎÀÌÀÚ °³ÀÎ ºñ¼·Î ¾Ë·ÁÁø ±è¿ÁÀ» ÁÖ¸ñÇß½À´Ï´Ù. ÀÌ °íÀ§ °ü¸®´Â ¡°À强ÅÃÀº ±èÁ¤ÀÏÀÇ ½ÅÀÓÀ» ÅåÅåÈ÷ ¹Þ°í Àִµ¥´Ù ºÏÇÑ ³»ºÎ¿¡¼µµ ½Å·Ú°¡ Å©°í, ±è¿Áµµ ºÐ¸í ±èÁ¤ÀÏÀÇ ÃÖÃø±Ù ºñ¼·Î¼ »ó´çÇÑ ½ÅÀÓÀ» ¹Þ°í ÀÖ´Ù¡±°í Æò°¡Çß½À´Ï´Ù. ÀÌ °íÀ§ °ü¸®´Â ±×·¯³ª ¡°ºÏÇÑ¿¡´Â ±èÁ¤ÀÏÀÇ ½ÅÀÓÀ» ¹Þ´Â Ãø±ÙÀ¸·Î ±¹³» ¹®Á¦¿Í ±¹Á¦ ¹®Á¦¿Í °ü·ÃÇÑ ±èÁ¤ÀÏÀÇ ÅëÄ¡ öÇÐÀ» ÀÌÇØÇÏ°í ÀÖ°í, ÀÏÀÌ ÁøÇàµÇµµ·Ï ÇÒ ¼ö ÀÖ´Â »ç¶÷µéÀÌ ÃæºÐÇÏ´Ù¡±°í ¼³¸íÇß½À´Ï´Ù.
¹Ì±¹ÀÌ ±èÁ¤ÀÏÀÇ À¯°í¿¡ µû¸¥ ºñ»ó °èȹÀ» ¼ö¸³Çسõ¾Ò´ÂÁö ¿©ºÎ¿¡ ´ëÇØ ÀÌ °íÀ§ °ü¸®´Â ¡°¾Æ´Ï´Ù¡±¶ó°í ºÎÀÎÇÏ°í, ¡°ºÏÇÑÀÌ Á¤±Ç º¯ÇüÀ̳ª °æÁ¦ °³Çõ µî¿¡ ´ëÇØ °ËÅäÇÏ´Â °ÍÀº ¼øÀüÈ÷ ºÏÇÑÀÇ ±¹³» ¹®Á¦¡±¶ó°í ¸»Çß½À´Ï´Ù. ÀÌ °ü¸®´Â ±×·¯³ª ¡°±èÁ¤Àϵµ »ç¶÷Àθ¸Å ¾ðÁ¨°¡´Â »ç¸ÁÇÏ°Ô µÉ °ÍÀÌ°í, ±× ¶§°¡¸é ºÏÇÑ¿¡ ºñÇÙÈ¿Í ¹Ì±¹°úÀÇ °ü°è Á¤»óÈ°¡ ÀÌ·ïÁö°í, °æÁ¦ °³ÇõÀÌ ¼º°øµÉ ¼ö ÀÖµµ·Ï Èû¾²´Â »õ·Î¿î Áøº¸ ÁöµµºÎ(new progressive leadership)·Î ¾ÆÁÖ Æòȷοî Á¤±ÇÀ̾çÀÌ ÀÖÀ» °Í¡±À̶ó°í ¿¹°ßÇß½À´Ï´Ù.
ÀÌ °íÀ§ °ü¸®´Â ±èÁ¤ÀÏ »çÈÄ ºÏÇÑÀÇ ³»ºÎ Æø¹ß °¡´É¼º¿¡ ´ëÇؼ ¡°´ç¿¬È÷ ±àÁ¤, ºÎÁ¤ Ãø¸éÀ» ´Ù º¸°ÚÁö¸¸ ³ ±àÁ¤ÀûÀÎ Ãø¸éÀ» ´õ µé¿©´Ùº¸°í ½Í´Ù¡±°í ÀüÁ¦ÇÑ µÚ, ¡°¾î´À ³ª¶óÀÇ Èİ豸µµ°Ç ¿ì¸®°¡ µé¿©´Ùº¸´Â °ÍÀº Àڱ⠳ª¶ó ±¹¹ÎÀº ¹°·Ð ±¹Á¦ °ü°è¿¡ ´ëÇؼ ¿°·ÁÇÏ°í ±¹Á¦ÀûÀÎ Á¤Å뼺À» ¿øÇÏ´Â Áøº¸ÀûÀÎ Á¤ºÎ·ÎÀÇ Æòȷοî Á¤±ÇÀ̾硱À̶ó°í °Á¶Çß½À´Ï´Ù.
ƯÈ÷ ±èÁ¤ÀÏÀÇ °©ÀÛ½º·± »ç¸Á½Ã ¹Ì±¹ÀÇ °¡Àå Å« ¿ì·Á ¿äÀο¡ ´ëÇؼ ÀÌ °íÀ§ °ü¸®´Â Á÷Á¢ÀûÀÎ ´äº¯À» ÇÇÇÑ Ã¤ ¡°»ç½Ç ÀÌ ¼ø°£ °ÆÁ¤½º·¯¿î °ÍÀº Áö±Ý±îÁö ¿ì¸®°¡ ÀÌ·ï³½ 6ÀÚȸ´ãÀÇ ÁøÀüÀ» Ȥ½Ã ´õ ÀÌ»ó ÀÌ·çÁö ¸øÇÒ±î ÇÏ´Â °ÍÀε¥, ÀÌ°Ô Áö±Ý °¡Àå Å« °ÆÁ¤°Å¸®¡± (What's worrisome at this moment is that if we cease having this progress made with this 6-party talks, that's the most worrisome) ¶ó°í ¸»Çß½À´Ï´Ù.
******************************************************************
ºÎ½Ã ÇàÁ¤ºÎ °íÀ§°ü¸® ÀÎÅͺä Àü¹®
¹®: Who else are there beside Kim Jong Il in terms of running N. Korea? (ºÏÇÑÀÇ ÇâÈÄ ±¹Á¤ ¿î¿µ°ú °ü·ÃÇØ ±èÁ¤ÀÏ ¿Ü¿¡ ´©°¡ Àִ°¡?)
´ä:'There are other people beside Kim Jong Il, we know that. The National Defense Commission, we saw Kim Yong Nam, the titular head of DPRK, certainly his brother-in-law Jang Sungtaek, he is a man with a lot of credibility in N. Korea who has the confidence of Kim Jong Il. His personal secretary Kim Ok. She is a woman very close to him, and he's a great confidence obviously in her. And of course he has children, so one could say there are a number of people there who are close to Kim, who understand where Kim Jong Il's philosophy is with respect to domestic and international affairs and events, And indeed we believe because he is still there, and making decisions, ¡®how active he is¡¯ the question we don't really have, but he is still there, so I think there are enough people there, this is an assessment, my assessment, who know the business, who have his confidence, who're ensuring things move forward.¡±
(±èÁ¤ÀÏ ¿Ü¿¡ ¹°·Ð ´Ù¸¥ »ç¶÷µéÀÌ ÀÖ´Ù´Â °É ¿ì¸° ¾È´Ù. ±¹¹æÀ§¿øȸ°¡ ÀÖ°í, ¸í¸ñ»ó ÁöµµÀÚÀÎ ±è¿µ³²µµ ÀÖ´Ù. ¸Åü À强ÅÃÀº ±èÁ¤ÀÏÀÇ ¸¹Àº ½ÅÀÓÀ» ¹Þ´Â Àڷμ ºÏÇѳ»¿¡¼ »ó´çÇÑ ½Å·Ú¸¦ ¹Þ´Â Àι°ÀÌ´Ù. °³ÀÎ ºñ¼ÀÎ ±è¿Áµµ ±èÁ¤ÀÏ°ú ¾ÆÁÖ °¡±î¿îµ¥´Ù, ±èÁ¤Àϵµ ±è¿Á¿¡°Ô »ó´çÇÑ ½ÅÀÓÀ» ÁÖ°í ÀÖ´Ù. ±èÁ¤ÀÏÀº Àڽĵµ ÀÖ°í, ¶Ç ÀÚ½ÅÀÇ Ãø±ÙÀ¸·Î¼ ±¹³»¹®Á¦¿Í ±¹Á¦¹®Á¦, »ç¾È¿¡ ´ëÇÑ ±èÁ¤ÀÏÀÇ Ã¶ÇÐÀ» ÀÌÇØÇÏ´Â ¿©·¯ »ç¶÷ÀÌ ÀÖ´Ù. ¿ì¸®°¡ ¹Ï±â·Ð, ±èÁ¤ÀÏÀº ¾ÆÁ÷ °ÇÀçÇÏ°í °áÁ¤À» ³»¸®°í ÀÖ´Ù. ±×°¡ ¾ó¸¶³ª È°µ¿ÀûÀÎÁö´Â ¸ð¸£°ÚÁö¸¸, ¿©ÀüÈ÷ ±×´Â °ÇÀçÇÏ´Ù. ³» Æò°¡·Ð µ¹¾Æ°¡´Â »çÁ¤À» Àß ¾Ë°í ÀÖ°í, ±èÁ¤ÀÏÀÇ ½ÅÀÓÀ» ¾ò°í ÀÖÀ¸¸ç ÀÏÀÌ ÁøÇàµÇ°Ô²û ÇÏ´Â »ç¶÷Àº ÃæºÐÇÏ´Ù°í º»´Ù.)
¹®: Is there any possibility Kim Jong Il has been giving orders through his close aides like Kim Ok, Jang Sungtaek or National Defense Commission members? (±èÁ¤ÀÏÀÌ ±è¿Á, À强Åà ¶Ç´Â ±¹¹æÀ§¿øȸ À§¿øÀ» ÅëÇØ ÀÚ½ÅÀÇ ¸í·ÉÀ» ³»·Á¿ÔÀ» °¡´É¼ºÀÌ Àִ°¡?)
´ä:¡°Absolutely, absolutely, that's a real possibility and a likelihood.' (¹°·ÐÀÌ´Ù. ÁøÂ¥ ±×·² °¡´É¼ºÀÌ ÀÖÀ¸¸ç °³¿¬¼ºµµ ÀÖ´Ù.)
¹®: What do you think is the most likely succession scenario after Kim Jong Il's death? (±èÁ¤ÀÏ »çÈÄ °¡Àå À¯¸ÁÇÑ ÈÄ°è ±¸µµ´Â ¹«¾ùÀÌ¶ó º¸´Â°¡?)
´ä: ¡°Well, again, that's problematic. He has managed to be 66, although he is not in his best health and so forth, one looking at his father who lived to into 80, so I mean it's a question of looking down the road. Kim Jong Il has to start thinking about his succession. I think the people I mentioned before would probably fit in that scenario, to include his sons, three sons.¡± (±Û½ê, ±×°Ô Á» º¹ÀâÇÏ´Ù. ±èÁ¤ÀÏÀÌ ÇöÀç ÃÖ»óÀÇ °Ç° »óÅ´ ¾Æ´ÏÁö¸¸ 66¼¼±îÁö Àß »ì¾Æ¿À°í ÀÖ´Ù. ºÎÄ£ÀÌ 80¿©¼¼±îÁö »ì¾Ò´Ù´Â Á¡À» °¨¾ÈÇϸé ÀÌÁ¨ ³ªÀÌ·Î º¸¸é ³»·Á°¡´Â ±æ¸ñÀÌ°í, µû¶ó¼ ±èÁ¤Àϵµ ÀÚ½ÅÀÇ ÈÄ°è¿¡ ´ëÇØ »ý°¢Çغ¸±â ½ÃÀÛÇØ¾ß ÇÑ´Ù. ³»°¡ º¼ ¶§ ±èÁ¤ÀÏÀÇ ¾Æµé, Áï ¼¼ ¾ÆµéÀ» Æ÷ÇÔÇؼ ÀÌ¹Ì ¾ð±ÞÇÑ »ç¶÷µéÀÌ ÈÄ°è ±¸µµ¿¡ µé¾î¸Â´Â´Ù.)
¹®: Is there any chance of Kim Jong Il's son succeeding? (±èÁ¤ÀÏ ¾ÆµéÀÌ Èİ踦 ÀÌÀ» °¡´É¼ºµµ ÀÖ´Ù°í º¸³ª?)
´ä:¡°Well, you know, it's not necessarily the way we know of the most recent succession scenarios in N. Korea where Kim Il Sung passed the batton to Kim Jong Il. This may be more of a united leadership where the National Defense Commission with some Korean Workers Party officials like Jang Sungtaek, some secretary people like Kim Ok, and some senior military heads of the National Defense Commission working with one of, or more of Kim's sons also come together into a united leadership, I mean we may see something of that nature. (±Û½ê´Ù. ÇâÈÄ ±èÁ¤ÀÏÀÇ ÈÄ°è°¡ ¿ì¸®°¡ °¡Àå ¸¶Áö¸·À¸·Î º» ÈÄ°è À̾ç, Áï ±èÀϼºÀÌ ±èÁ¤ÀÏ¿¡°Ô ÈÄ°è ¹ÙÅæÀ» Àü´ÞÇÏ´ø ½ÄÀ¸·Î ¹Ýµå½Ã µÈ´Ù´Â º¸ÀåÀº ¾ø´Ù. ¿ÀÈ÷·Á ±¹¹æÀ§¿øȸ°¡ À强Åð°Àº ÀϺΠ³ëµ¿´ç °ü¸®µé, ±è¿Á°°Àº ÀϺΠºñ¼µé, ±×¸®°í ±¹¹æÀ§¿øȸ ÀϺΠ±º ÁöµµÀÚµéÀÌ ±èÁ¤ÀÏ ¾ÆµéÁß ÇÑ »ç¶÷ ȤÀº ±× ÀÌ»ó°ú ÇùÁ¶Çؼ ±¸¼ºÇÏ´Â ¿¬ÇÕ ÁöµµºÎ¿¡ ´õ °¡±õ´Ù°í ÇÒ ¼ö ÀÖ´Ù. ±×·± ¼º°ÝÀÇ ÁöµµºÎ°¡ µîÀåÇÒ ¼öµµ ÀÖ´Ù´Â °ÍÀÌ´Ù.)
¹®: In a way, is it sort of a collective leadership? (ÀÏÁ¾ÀÇ Áý´ÜÁöµµÃ¼ÀÚ °°Àº °ÍÀΰ¡?)
´ä:Something along that line.¡± (±×¿Í ºñ½ÁÇÏ´Ù.)
¹®: Do you think that sort of united leadership will last long? (±×¿Í °°Àº ¿¬ÇÕ ÁöµµÃ¼°¡ ¿À·¡ °¥ °ÍÀ¸·Î º¸´Â°¡?)
´ä: ¡°That's hard to say. It's really hard to say, depending on the domestic situation when you want to feed your people, you have to have economic development, you have to have prospects for your people to get out of the category of being a state that does not have best relations. Certainly unless we could, or they can resolve nuclear issues with other five countries, N. Korea with the (UN) sanctions 1718 and 1685 would never really be in the fold of what one would assume would be a vibrant nation state. So, it depends on their domestic policy, and on their international policy as to how vibrant a country is would then speak to survivability, I think, of a leadership.¡± (¸»Çϱ⠾î·ÆÁö¸¸ ºÏÇÑ ±¹³» »óȲ¿¡ ´Þ·ÁÀÖ´Ù. Áï ±¹¹ÎµéÀ» ¸Ô¿© »ì¸®°íÀÚ ÇÑ´Ù¸é °æÁ¦°³¹ßÀ» ÇØ¾ß ÇÏ°í, ±¹¹Îµé¿¡°Ô ¹Ì·¡¿¡ ´ëÇÑ Àü¸ÁÀ» ÁÖ·Á¸é ÇöÀç ´Ù¸¥ ³ª¶ó¿Í ÃÖ»óÀÇ °ü°è¸¦ °®Áö ¸øÇÏ°í ÀÖ´Â »óȲ¿¡¼ ¹þ¾î³ª¾ß ÇÑ´Ù. ±×·±µ¥ ºÏÇÑÀÌ ÇÙ¹®Á¦¸¦ Ç®Áö ¸øÇϸé À¯¿£ °áÀÇ¾È 1718È£¿Í 1685È£¿¡ µû¶ó Á¦À縦 ¹Þ°í ÀÖ´Â ºÏÇÑÀ¸·Î¼± ¿ªµ¿ÀûÀÎ ¹ÎÁ·±¹°¡·Î ÁøÀÔÇϱä Á¤¸» Èûµé °ÍÀÌ´Ù. ÇÑ ³ª¶ó°¡ ¾ó¸¶³ª ¿ªµ¿ÀûÀÌ³Ä ÇÏ´Â ¹®Á¦´Â ±× ³ª¶óÀÇ ±¹³», ±¹Á¦Á¤Ã¥¿¡ ´Þ·ÁÀÖ°í, ÀÌ°Ç ³»°¡ º¸±â¿¡ ±× ³ª¶óÀÇ ÁöµµÀÚÀÇ »ýÁ¸·Â°úµµ Á÷°áµÇ´Â ¹®Á¦ÀÌ´Ù.)
¹®: Do you have any contingency plan in case of Kim Jong Il's demise or incapacitation due to his health? (±èÁ¤ÀÏÀÇ »ç¸ÁÀ̳ª °Ç°À¸·Î ÀÎÇÑ ±â´É»ó½Ç¿¡ ´ëºñÇÑ ºñ»ó °èȹÀ» °®°í Àִ°¡?)
´ä:No. let me just say this very, very clearly. I mean this is truly a domestic issue for the DPRK, when they look at transformation issues, economic reforms and so forth. The key for any country, I speak just on the intelligence side here, would be to understand where the country is, what the leadership looks like, and what their policies will be, and that's all their domestic issue as to what the configuration of any leadership look like. I think that's the business of another government. (¾ø´Ù. ¾ÆÁÖ ºÐ¸íÈ÷ ¸»ÇØµÎ°í ½ÍÀº Á¡ÀÌ ÀÖ´Ù. ºÏÇÑÀÌ Á¤±Ç º¯ÇüÀÇ ¹®Á¦¿Í °æÁ¦ °³Çõ µî¿¡ ´ëÇØ °ËÅäÇÏ´Â °ÍÀº ¼øÀüÈ÷ ºÏÇÑ ÀÚüÀÇ ±¹³» ¹®Á¦´Ù. Á¤º¸ÂÊ¿¡ ÀÖ´Â ³» ÀÔÀå¿¡¼ ¸»ÇÑ´Ù¸é ¾î´À ³ª¶ó¸¦ ÀÌÇØÇÏ´Â µ¥ ÀÖ¾î °ü°ÇÀº ±× ³ª¶óÀÇ »óȲÀ̸ç, ÁöµµºÎ´Â ¾î¶²Áö, Á¤Ã¥Àº ¾î¶»°Ô µÉ °ÍÀÌ µîÀ» ÀÌÇØÇÏ´Â °ÍÀÌ°í, ÁöµµºÎ ÇüÅ°¡ ¾î¶² ¸ð½ÀÀ» ¶ì°Ô µÉÁöµµ ´Ù ±×µéÀÇ ±¹³» ¹®Á¦ÀÌ´Ù. ´Ù½Ã ¸»ÇØ ÀÌ·± °ÍÀº ±× ³ª¶ó Á¤ºÎÀÇ ¹®Á¦¶ó°í º»´Ù.)
¹®: What kind of cooperation do you have in mind wth China on any contingencies in N. Korea? (Ȥ½Ã ºÏÇÑÀÇ ºñ»ó »óȲ½Ã Áß±¹°ú ¾î¶² Çù·ÂÀ» ¿°µÎ¿¡ µÎ°í Àִ°¡?)
´ä:I think China is concerned obviously, but China is a very close ally of N. Korea. China understands what's going on in N. Korea better than anyone else. When you say contingencies, I would really focus on opportunities. The opportunities of all with the 6-party talks, we're coming very close to the 3rd phase which speaks to denuclearization and normalization. That's got to be the focus to bring it to fullness, to culminate. That would be the significant success. I think China, the US and other countries would appauld that, and that would be the progress. So in contingencies, we would have opportunities. It would be a shame if, for some reason, N. Korea restarted Yongbyon and walked away from all the progress made. (ºÐ¸í Áß±¹µµ ¿ì·ÁÇÏ°í ÀÖ´Ù°í º»´Ù. Áß±¹Àº ºÏÇÑÀÇ ¾ÆÁÖ ±ä¹ÐÇÑ µ¿¸ÍÀÌ´Ù. µû¶ó¼ ºÏÇÑ¿¡¼ ¹ú¾îÁö´Â ÀÏÀ» ´©±¸º¸´Ù ¼Ò»óÇÏ°Ô ÀÌÇØÇÏ°í ÀÖ´Ù. Áö±Ý ºÏÇÑÀÇ ºñ»ó»óȲÀ» ¸»ÇÏ°í ÀÖÁö¸¸, ³ª·Î¼± ¿ÀÈ÷·Á ±âȸÂÊ¿¡ ÃÊÁ¡À» ¸ÂÃß°í ½Í´Ù. 6ÀÚȸ´ãÀÌ °¡Á®´ÙÁØ ±âȸ ¸»ÀÌ´Ù. ÇöÀç ¿ì¸° ºñÇÙÈ¿Í °ü°èÁ¤»óÈ·Î °¡´Â 3´Ü°è ±¹¸é¿¡ ¾ÆÁÖ ±ÙÁ¢ÇØ ÀÖ´Ù. ÀÌ°É ¿Ï¼öÇÏ´Â µ¥ ÃÊÁ¡À» ¸ÂÃß¾ß ÇÏ°í, ¶Ç ±×·¸°Ô µÇ¸é Áß±¹°ú ¹Ì±¹, ´Ù¸¥ ³ª¶óµéÀÌ ¸ðµÎ Âùµ¿ÇÒ ¸¸ÇÑ »ó´çÇÑ ¼º°øÀÌ µÉ °ÍÀÌ´Ù. ºÏÇÑÀÌ ¹«½¼ ÀÌÀ¯¿¡¼µç ¿µº¯ Çٽü³À» Àç°¡µ¿ÇÏ°í Áö±Ý±îÁö ÀÌ·é ÁøÀüÀ» ¹ÚÂ÷°í ³ª°£°¡¸é Ä¡¿åÀÌ µÉ °ÍÀÌ´Ù.)
¹®: According to a recent press report, the US intelligence authorities handed over its S. Korean counterpart a document analyzing on the possible succession scenarios depending on the seriousness of Kim Jong Il's health? Can you confirm this? (ÃÖ±Ù ¾ð·Ðº¸µµ¸¦ º¸¸é ¹Ì Á¤º¸´ç±¹ÀÌ ±èÁ¤ÀÏÀÇ °Ç°À§Áß Á¤µµ¿¡ µû¸¥ ÈÄ°è ±¸µµ¸¦ ºÐ¼®ÇÑ ¹®°ÇÀ» Çѱ¹Ãø¿¡ ³Ñ°å´Ù°í µÅ Àִµ¥, È®ÀÎÇØÁÙ ¼ö ÀÖ³ª?)
´ä:I think analysts always sit down and speculate as to what elections look like or what new leadership look like in any country, so I think this is sort of normal business of analysts getting together with analysts and speaking about different scenarios. I think countries would be foolish not to plan and do some speculation about the configuration of leadership elements within countries, and what their policies would be as they effect on their domestic situation and international relations. I think this is totally routine. (ºÐ¼®°¡µéÀº ¾î´À ³ª¶ó ¼±°Å°á°ú´Â ¾î¶³Áö ¶Ç´Â »õ·Î¿î ÁöµµºÎ´Â ¾î¶² ¸ð½ÀÀ» °®ÃâÁö µî¿¡ °üÇØ ´Ã»ó ¾É¾Æ¼ ÃßÃøÇÏ´Â ¹ýÀÌ´Ù. µû¶ó¼ ºÐ¼®°¡µé³¢¸® ¼·Î ¸ð¿©¼ ¼·Î ´Ù¸¥ ½Ã³ª¸®¿À¿¡ ´ëÇØ °Å·ÐÇÏ´Â °ÍÀº ÀÏ»óÀûÀÎ ¾÷¹«¶ó°í »ý°¢ÇÑ´Ù. ¿ÀÈ÷·Á ´Ù¸¥ ³ª¶óÀÇ ÁöµµºÎ ¿ä¼Ò°¡ ¾î¶² ÇüŸ¦ ¶ì°Ô µÉÁö, ¶Ç ±×µéÀÇ Á¤Ã¥ÀÌ ±¹³» »óȲ°ú ±¹Á¦ °ü°è¿¡ ¾î¶² ¿µÇâÀ» ¹ÌÄ¥Áö µî¿¡ °üÇØ °èȹÇÏ°í ÃßÃøÇغ¸Áö ¾Ê´Â ³ª¶ó°¡ ¾î¸®¼®Àº ³ª¶óÀÌ´Ù. ÀÌ·± ÇüÅÂÀÇ Á¤º¸ ÇùÁ¶´Â Áö±ØÈ÷ ÀÏ»óÀûÀÎ °ÍÀÌ´Ù.)
¹®: What do you think is the most worrisome factor on the part of the US in case of Kim Jong Il's sudden demise? (±èÁ¤ÀÏÀÇ °©ÀÛ½º·± »ç¸Á½Ã ¹Ì±¹¿¡ °¡Àå °ÆÁ¤½º·± ¿äÀÎÀº ¹«¾ùÀΰ¡?)
´ä: Well, you say 'worrisome'. What's worrisome at this moment is that if we cease having this progress made with this 6-party talks, that's the most worrisome. Kim Jong Il will eventually pass, and there will be a very peaceful transition to a new leadership, I mean, a new progressive leadership that will be looking at, if we haven't succeeded in 6-party talks, ensuring we succeed with denuclearization and normalization, and economic reforms. (Áö±Ý ¡®°ÆÁ¤½º·±¡¯À̶õ Ç¥ÇöÀ» Çߴµ¥, »ç½Ç ÀÌ ¼ø°£ °ÆÁ¤½º·¯¿î Á¡Àº Áö±Ý±îÁö 6ÀÚȸ´ã¿¡¼ ÀÌ·é ÁøÀüÀ» ´õ ÀÌ»ó º¸Áö ¸øÇÏ°Ô µÇÁö ¾ÊÀ»±î ÇÏ´Â °ÍÀε¥, ÀÌ°Ô °¡Àå Å« °ÆÁ¤ÀÌ´Ù. ±èÁ¤Àϵµ °á±¹¿¡´Â ´Ù¸¥ ¸ðµç Àΰ£µéó·³ »ç¸ÁÇÏ°Ô °ÍÀÌ°í, ±×·³ ºÏÇÑ¿¡µµ »õ·Î¿î ÁöµµÃ¼Á¦·Î ¾ÆÁÖ Æòȷοî Á¤±Ç ±³Ã¼°¡ ÀÖÀ» °ÍÀÌ´Ù. ³»°¡ ¸»ÇÏ´Â ÁöµµÃ¼Á¦´Â ¿ì¸®°¡ ¸¸ÀÏ 6ÀÚȸ´ã¿¡¼ ¼º°øÀ» °ÅµÎÁö ¸øÇßÀ¸¸é ºñÇÙÈ¿Í °ü°èÁ¤»óÈ, ±×¸®°í °æÁ¦ °³ÇõÀ» ÀÌ·ê ¼ö ÀÖµµ·Ï ÇÏ´Â ±×·± »õ·Î¿î Áøº¸ÀûÀÎ Áöµµ üÁ¦¸¦ ¸»ÇÑ´Ù.)
¹®: Well, I though you would talk about something like internal implosion or situation like that. (±× °æ¿ì ºÏÇÑ ³»ºÎÀÇ Æø¹ß ȤÀº ±×·± »óȲ¿¡ ´ëÇØ ¾ð±ÞÇÒÁÙ ¾Ë¾Ò´Âµ¥...)
´ä:But I look at it from the positive side, rather than negative side. I think when we look at any succession scenario of any country, we're looking for a peaceful transition, transition to a government, a progressive government that cares about its people, that cares about its international relations, that wants to be part of the nation state in the world, international legitimacy. The negative side will be, if it doesn't go that way, if there is a new leadership that lends itself to discord and so forth, it's a very troubling scenario. Sure, obviously we look at both scenarios. The key one in my estimation is the peaceful transition of power to successes who are, let me be very blunt about that, who are progressive, and who want to see progress made, and the other side will be the failure side, where there would be elements of discord and unhappiness and factionalism and so forth. Let me hasten to say I don't see any of that. (³ ºÎÁ¤Àû Ãø¸éº¸´Ù´Â ±àÁ¤Àû Ãø¸é¿¡¼ º¸°í ÀÖ´Â °ÍÀÌ´Ù. ¾î´À ³ª¶ó°Ç ÈÄ°è ±¸µµ¸¦ °ËÅäÇÒ ¶§ ¿ì¸®°¡ µé¿©´Ùº¸´Â Á¤±ÇÀ̾çÀº ÀÚ±¹ ±¹¹Î°ú ±¹Á¦ °ü°è¸¦ ¿°·ÁÇÏ°í, ¶Ç ¼¼°è ¼ÓÀÇ ¹ÎÁ·±¹°¡ÀÇ ÀϺημ ±¹Á¦Àû Á¤Å뼺À» ÀÎÁ¤¹Þ°í ½Í¾îÇÏ´Â ±×·± Á¤ºÎ, Áøº¸Àû Á¤ºÎ·ÎÀÇ ÆòÈÀûÀÎ Á¤±Ç À̾çÀÌ´Ù. ºÎÁ¤ÀûÀÎ Ãø¸éÀº ¸¸ÀÏ ±×·¸°Ô µÇÁö ¸øÇÒ ¶§, »õ ÁöµµºÎ°¡ ºÒÈ µîÀ¸·Î »ß°Æ°Å¸± ¶§ ±×°Ç ¾ÆÁÖ ¿ì·Á½º·± ½Ã³ª¸®¿À´Ù. ´ç¿¬ÀÌ ¿ì¸° ¾çÂÊ ½Ã³ª¸®¿À¸¦ ´Ù °ËÅäÇÑ´Ù. ±×·± Á¡¿¡¼ ³»°¡ ÃßÁ¤ÇÏ´Â ÁÖ¿ä ½Ã³ª¸®¿À´Â Á» ³ë°ñÀûÀ¸·Î ¸»ÇØ ÁøÀüÀ» ÀÌ·ç°í ½Í¾îÇÏ´Â Áøº¸ÀûÀÎ ÈÄ°èÀÚ·ÎÀÇ ÆòÈÀûÀÎ ±Ç·Â À̾çÀÌ´Ù. ±× ¹Ý´ë´Â ºÒÈ¿Í ºÒ¸¸, ±×¸®°í ´çÆÄÁÖÀÇ ºÐÀÚµéÀÌ ³¹«ÇÏ´Â ½ÇÆÐÇÑ ÂÊÀÌ´Ù. ¼µÑ·¯ ¸»ÇÏ¸é ±×·± ¸éÀº º¸ÀÌÁö ¾Ê´Â´Ù.)