"Ú¸ Áß°£¼±°Å °á°ú, ´ëºÏÁ¤Ã¥¿¡ ¿µÇâ °ÅÀÇ ¾øÀ» °Í¡±

¿ìÅ©¶óÀ̳ªîú, ÀÎÇ÷¹ÀÌ¼Ç µî ±¹³»¿Ü Çö¾È¿¡ ºÏÇÑ ¹®Á¦´Â ¿ì¼±¼øÀ§¿¡¼­ ¹Ð·Á¡¦±èÁ¤Àº, Æ®·³ÇÁ ÀçµîÀåÀ» ÇÙµµ¹Ú ±âȸ·Î »ïÀ» ¼öµµ.
¾ÞÄ¿:¹Ì±¹ÀÇ Áß°£¼±°Å¿¡¼­ ¾ß´çÀÎ °øÈ­´çÀÌ ¿¬¹æ ÇÏ¿ø ´Ù¼ö´çÀ» Â÷ÁöÇÑ °¡¿îµ¥, ¹Ì Àü¹®°¡µéÀº ¹Ì±¹ ÀÇȸ ±Ç·Â º¯È­°¡ Á¶ ¹ÙÀÌµç ¹Ì ÇàÁ¤ºÎÀÇ ´ëºÏÁ¤Ã¥¿¡ ¹ÌÄ¡´Â ½ÇÁúÀû ¿µÇâÀº °ÅÀÇ ¾øÀ» °ÍÀ¸·Î Àü¸ÁÇß½À´Ï´Ù. Á¶Áø¿ì ±âÀÚ°¡ º¸µµÇÕ´Ï´Ù.

¹Ì±¹ÀÇ ¹Î°£´Üü ¡®ÄÚ¸®¾Æ¼Ò»çÀ̾îƼ¡¯ÀÇ Á¶³ª´Ü ÄÚ¶óµµ(Jonathan Corrado) Á¤Ã¥´ã´ç ±¹ÀåÀº 9ÀÏ ÀÚÀ¯¾Æ½Ã¾Æ¹æ¼Û(RFA)¿¡ À̹ø Áß°£¼±°Å °á°ú°¡ ¹Ì±¹ÀÇ ´ëºÏÁ¤Ã¥¿¡ Å« ¿µÇâÀ» ¹ÌÄ¡Áö ¾ÊÀ» °ÍÀ̶ó°í ¹àÇû½À´Ï´Ù.(The results of the midterm elections will not have a sizable impact on America's policy towards North Korea.)

±× ÀÌÀ¯·Î ±×´Â ¡°¹Ì±¹ÀÇ ´ëºÏÁ¤Ã¥Àº ¹é¾Ç°üÀÌ ÁÖµµÇÏ°í, ¹ÙÀ̵ç ÇàÁ¤ºÎ´Â ºÏÇÑ¿¡ Á¶°Ç ¾ø´Â ´ëÈ­¸¦ Á¦¾ÈÇϸ鼭 È®´ëµÈ ´ëºÏ ¿Ü±³¸¦ ¸ð»öÇÏ°í Àֱ⠶§¹®¡±À̶ó°í ¹àÇû½À´Ï´Ù.(The overarching U.S. policy in North Korea is guided by the White House, and the Biden administration has extended an open offer to Pyongyang for condition-free dialogue.)

´Ù¸¸ ±×´Â Â÷±â ¹Ì ÀÇȸ°¡ ´ëºÏ Á¦Àç¿¡¼­ Áß¿äÇÑ ¿ªÇÒÀ» ÇÒ °ÍÀ¸·Î Àü¸ÁÇß½À´Ï´Ù. ÄÚ¶óµµ ±¹ÀåÀº ¡°ÀÇȸ´Â ºÏÇÑ¿¡ ´ëÇÑ °æÁ¦Á¦Àç ¹ý¾ÈÀ» Á¦Á¤ÇÏ´Â µ¥ ÀÖ¾î Áß¿äÇÑ ¿ªÇÒÀ» ÇÑ´Ù¡±¸ç ¡°Áö±Ý±îÁö ÀÇȸÀÇ ´ëºÏ ¹ý¾ÈÀº ¸Å¿ì ÃÊ´çÀûÀ̾ú°í, ¾ÕÀ¸·Îµµ ±×°ÍÀÌ °è¼ÓµÉ °ÍÀ¸·Î ¿¹»óµÇÁö¸¸, À¯¿£ ¾ÈÀüº¸ÀåÀÌ»çȸ¿¡¼­ ·¯½Ã¾Æ¿Í Áß±¹ÀÌ »õ·Î¿î ´ÙÀÚ°£ Á¦Àç µµÀÔÀ» °è¼Ó °¡·Î¸·°í ÀÖ´Â ÇÑ ÀϹæÀû Á¦ÀçÀÇ ½ÇÈ¿¼ºÀº Á¦ÇÑÀû¡±À̶ó°í ÁöÀûÇß½À´Ï´Ù. (The Congress has a significant role to play in enacting legislation introducing economic prohibitions on interacting with North Korea. To date, Congressional legislation on North Korea has been highly bipartisan, and I would expect that to continue. However, the efficacy of unilateral sanctions is limited, especially so long as the introduction of new multilateral restrictions continues to be blocked by Russia and China in the UN Security Council.)

ÀÌ¾î ¡°¹Ì¡¤Áß °ü°è°¡ °è¼Ó ¾ÇÈ­µÇ¸é ºÏÇÑ°ú ºÒ¹ý °Å·¡¸¦ ÇÑ Á¦3ÀÚ¸¦ ó¹úÇÏ´Â °­·ÂÇÑ 2Â÷ Á¦Àç¿¡ ´ëÇÑ ¿ä±¸°¡ Ä¿Áú ¼ö ÀÖ´Ù¡±¸ç ¡°ÀÌ°ÍÀº Áö±Ý±îÁö ¹Ì±¹ÀÌ ÁÖÀúÇØ¿Â °ÍÀ¸·Î, ºÏÇÑÀÇ Á¦1 ¹«¿ª »ó´ë±¹ÀÎ Áß±¹°úÀÇ »õ·Î¿î Â÷¿øÀÇ ±äÀå °ü°è¸¦ ¼ö¹ÝÇÒ °Í¡±À̶ó°í Àü¸ÁÇß½À´Ï´Ù. (If U.S.-China relations continue to deteriorate, there could be an increased appetite for stronger secondary sanctions that punish third parties for illicit dealings with North Korea. This is a line that thus far the U.S. has been hesitant to cross, and would signal a new level of tensions, principally with China, which remains North Korea's number one trading partner.)

¹Ì ³ëÆ¿·¯½º¿¬±¸¼ÒÀÇ µ¥À̺ñµå Æù È÷Æç(David Von Hippel) ¿¬±¸¿øµµ À̳¯ ÀÚÀ¯¾Æ½Ã¾Æ¹æ¼Û(RFA)¿¡ °øÈ­´çÀÇ ÇÏ¿ø ´Ù¼ö´ç Â÷Áö°¡ ¹ÙÀ̵ç ÇàÁ¤ºÎÀÇ ´ëºÏÁ¤Ã¥¿¡ Å« ¿µÇâÀ» ¹ÌÄ¡Áö ¾ÊÀ» °ÍÀ¸·Î Àü¸ÁÇß½À´Ï´Ù. (A the shift to a Republican House majority will not have a lot of impact on the Biden Administration¡¯s DPRK policies.)

±× ÀÌÀ¯·Î ±×´Â Àü ¼¼°èÀûÀ¸·Î ³Ê¹« ¸¹Àº ´Ù¸¥ À§±âµéÀÌ Àֱ⠶§¹®¿¡ ÃÖ±Ù Çѹݵµ¿¡¼­ ¹ß»ýÇÑ »ç°Ç¿¡µµ ºÒ±¸ÇÏ°í ¹ÙÀ̵ç ÇàÁ¤ºÎ´Â ºÏÇÑ¿¡ ´ëÇØ °ü½ÉÀ» ±â¿ïÀÌ´Â µ¥ ÇÑ°è°¡ ÀÖ°í ¶Ç ¹ÙÀ̵ç ÇàÁ¤ºÎ°¡ °í·ÁÇÏ°í ÀÖ´Â ÇöÀç ´ëºÏ Á¤Ã¥ÀÇ ´ëºÎºÐÀº ¾Æ¸¶µµ ÀÇȸÀÇ µ¿ÀǸ¦ ÇÊ¿ä·Î ÇÏÁö ¾ÊÀ» °ÍÀ̶ó°í ¹àÇû½À´Ï´Ù. (There are so many other crises around the world that the Administration has only a limited amount of attention to spare for the DPRK, despite recent events on the Korean Peninsula, and B) most of the current DPRK policies being considered by the Administration probably don¡¯t require consent from Congress.)

¹Ì±¹ ¹Î°£ Á¤Ã¥¿¬±¸±â°üÀÎ Çãµå½¼¿¬±¸¼ÒÀÇ ÆÐÆ®¸¯ Å©·Î´Ñ(Patrick M. Cronin) ¾Æ½Ã¾ÆÅÂÆò¾ç ¾Èº¸¼®Á´ 9ÀÏ ÀÚÀ¯¾Æ½Ã¾Æ¹æ¼Û(RFA)¿¡ ¡°°øÈ­´çÀÌ Àå¾ÇÇÑ ÇÏ¿øÀÌ Çѹݵµ Á¤Ã¥¿¡ ¹ÌÄ¡´Â ¿µÇâÀº ³²ºÏ ¸ðµÎ¿¡ ¿µÇâÀ» ¹ÌÄ¡´Â ºÏÇÑÀÇ µµ¹ßÀ̳ª ¹ÙÀ̵ç ÇàÁ¤ºÎ Á¤Ã¥¿¡ ´ëÀÀÇØ ³ª¿Ã °¡´É¼ºÀÌ ³ô´Ù¡±¸ç ¡°Â÷±â ÇÏ¿øÀÌ ÃëÇÒ ¼ö ÀÖ´Â Á¶Ä¡´Â ´ëºÎºÐ »ó¡ÀûÀÏ ¼ö ÀÖÁö¸¸, ÇÙ½ÇÇèÀ̳ª Ãß°¡ ¹Ì»çÀÏ ½ÃÇè, À¯¿£ Á¦Àç À§¹Ý ¶Ç´Â À뱂 À¯¸°¿¡ ´ëÇؼ­´Â ºÏÇÑ¿¡ ºü¸£°Ô ºÒÀÌÀÍÀ» ÁÙ °Í¡±À̶ó°í ºÐ¼®Çß½À´Ï´Ù. (The effects of a Republican House of Representatives on Korea policy is more likely to come in response to North Korea provocations or Biden administration policies that affect either of the two Koreas. That is it will be quick to seek to penalize Pyongyang for a nuclear test, further missiles tests, violations of UN sanctions, or human rights abuses, although any moves the next House might make would be mostly symbolic.)

±×·¯¸é¼­ ±×´Â ¡°ºÏÇÑÀ» ¾Ð¹ÚÇÏ°í Çѱ¹°ú ±ä¹ÐÈ÷ Çù·ÂÇϱâ À§ÇÑ ÃÊ´çÀû ÁöÁö°¡ °­·ÂÇÏÁö¸¸ Á¤Ä¡Àû °è»êÀÌ ÀÔ¹ý¿¡ ¿µÇâÀ» ¹ÌÄ¡°Å³ª, ¹ÙÀ̵ç ÇàÁ¤ºÎ°¡ Ãß±¸ÇÏ´Â Á¶Ä¡¸¦ Áö¿¬½Ãų °¡´É¼ºÀº Ç×»ó Á¸ÀçÇÑ´Ù¡±¸é¼­µµ ¡°±×·¯³ª Àü¹ÝÀûÀ¸·Î ½ÇÁúÀûÀÎ ¿µÇâÀº °ÅÀÇ ¾øÀ» °Í¡±À̶ó°í ¹àÇû½À´Ï´Ù. (While there is strong bipartisan support to pressure North Korea and work closely with South Korea, there is always the chance a political calculation could affect legislation or delay an action sought by the Biden administration. Overall, however, I think there will be little substantive impact.)

¹Ì ¿¬±¸±â°ü 'ºÒ·®±¹°¡ ÇÁ·ÎÁ§Æ®'ÀÇ Çظ® Ä«Áö¾Æ´Ï½º(Harry J. Kazianis) ´ëÇ¥´Â Çö ¹Ì±¹ ´ë¿Ü Á¤Ã¥ÀÇ ÃÊÁ¡ÀÌ ¿ìÅ©¶óÀ̳ª¿¡ ¸ÂÃçÁ³´Ù´Â Á¡À» ÁöÀûÇß½À´Ï´Ù. Ä«Áö¾Æ´Ï½º ´ëÇ¥´Â 9ÀÏ ÀÚÀ¯¾Æ½Ã¾Æ¹æ¼Û(RFA)¿¡ ¡°¼ÖÁ÷È÷ ¸»Çؼ­, ÇöÀç Çѱ¹°ú °ü·ÃµÈ ¾î¶² °Íµµ ÀÇ¿øµéÀÇ ¸¶À½¿¡¼­ °¡Àå ¸Ö¸® ¶³¾îÁ® ÀÖ´Ù¡±¸ç ¡°°øÈ­´çÀÌ ÇÏ¿ø°ú »ó¿ø±îÁö Â÷ÁöÇÏ´õ¶óµµ ÀÎÇ÷¹À̼Ç, °æÁ¦, ¹Ì±¹ ±¹³» ¹®Á¦ µîÀÌ Áß½ÉÀÌ µÉ °Í¡±À̶ó°í ¹àÇû½À´Ï´Ù. (To be frank, anything Korea related is furthest from lawmakers' minds at the moment still hangs in the balance. Assuming the GOP takes the House and even the Senate, issues like inflation, the economy, and domestic issues will take center stage.)

ÀÌ¾î ±×´Â ¡°¿Ü±³ Á¤Ã¥À¸·Î ³Ñ¾î°¡¸é ¿ìÅ©¶óÀ̳ª°¡ ÁÖ¿ä ³íÁ¦°¡ µÉ °ÍÀ̸ç, ÀÌÈÄ ³²Àº ÀÛÀº ºÎºÐÀº Áß±¹ÀÌ Â÷ÁöÇÏ°Ô µÉ °Í¡±À̶ó¸ç ¡°½½ÇÁ°Ôµµ, ±èÁ¤ÀºÀÌ 3Â÷ ¼¼°è´ëÀüÀ» ½ÃÀÛÇÏÁö ¾Ê´Â ÇÑ ºÏÇÑÀº ¸î ºÐ ¾È¿¡ ¼ö¹é¸¸ ¸íÀÇ ¸ñ¼ûÀ» ¾Ñ¾Æ°¥ ¼ö ÀÖ´Â ÇÙ¹«±â¸¦ Á¡Á¡ ´õ ¸¹ÀÌ ¸¸µé°í ÀÖÀ½¿¡µµ ºÏÇÑÀº ¹Ì ÀÇȸ¿¡ ¹®Á¦°¡ µÇÁö ¾ÊÀ» °Í¡±À̶ó°í ¾ð±ÞÇß½À´Ï´Ù. (After that, moving to foreign policy, Ukraine will dominate the discussion and how much to fund. After that, China will take what little bandwidth is left. Sadly, unless Kim Jong Un starts World War III, Korea just won't be an issue for this Congress - even as North Kore builds more and more nuclear weapons that could kill millions of people in minutes.)

ÀÌ·± °¡¿îµ¥, ¹é¾Ç°ü ±¹°¡¾Èº¸È¸ÀÇ ºÏÇÑ ´ã´ç ±¹ÀåÀ» Áö³½ ¾Ø¼­´Ï ·çÁö¿¡·Î(Anthony Ruggiero) ¹Ì ¹ÎÁÖÁÖÀǼöÈ£Àç´Ü ¼±ÀÓ¿¬±¸¿øÀº 9ÀÏ ÀÚÀ¯¾Æ½Ã¾Æ¹æ¼Û(RFA)¿¡ ÇÏ¿ø°ú »ó¿ø¿¡¼­ ¾î´À Á¤´çÀÌ À̱âµç ÀÇȸ´Â ¹ÙÀ̵ç ÇàÁ¤ºÎÀÇ ´ëºÏ Á¤Ã¥¿¡ ´ëÇÑ °¨µ¶À» ´Ã·Á¾ß ÇÑ´Ù°í ÁöÀûÇß½À´Ï´Ù. (Regardless of who wins the House and Senate, the Congress must increase its oversight of the Biden administration¡¯s North Korea policy.)

±×·¯¸é¼­ ±×´Â ¡°¹Ì ÀÇȸ´Â 2016³â°ú 2017³â, 2019³â ´ëºÏ Á¦À縦 ÃÊ´çÀû ´Ù¼ö°á·Î Åë°ú½ÃÄ×´Ù¡±¸ç ¡°°øÈ­´ç°ú ¹ÎÁÖ´çÀº ÀÌ·¯ÇÑ Á¦Àç°¡ ÀÌÇàµÇµµ·Ï Çù·ÂÇØ, °è¼ÓÇؼ­ ÇÙ¹«±â¿Í źµµ ¹Ì»çÀÏ ÇÁ·Î±×·¥ °³¹ß¿¡ »ç¿ëµÇ°í ÀÖ´Â ±è¾¾ ÀÏ°¡ÀÇ ¼öÀÔÀ» ÁÙÀÌ´Â µ¥ ÃÊÁ¡À» ¸ÂÃç¾ß ÇÑ´Ù¡±°í °­Á¶Çß½À´Ï´Ù. (Congress passed North Korea sanctions in 2016, 2017, and 2019 by large bipartisan majorities. Republicans and Democrats should work together to ensure these sanctions are implemented and focused on reducing the Kim family¡¯s revenue they use continue the nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programs.)

À̹ø Áß°£¼±°Å¿¡¼­ °øÈ­´çÀÇ ½Â¸®·Î µµ³Îµå Æ®·³ÇÁ Àü ´ëÅë·ÉÀÌ ³»Èij⠹̱¹ ´ëÅë·É ¼±°Å¿¡ ÀçÃ⸶ÇÒ °¡´É¼ºÀÌ Ä¿Áö¸é¼­ ±èÁ¤Àº ÃѺñ¼­ÀÇ ÇÙ µµ¹ß¿¡ »õ·Î¿î ±âȸ°¡ »ý±æ ¼öµµ ÀÖ´Ù´Â Àü¸Áµµ Á¦±âµÆ½À´Ï´Ù.

¼ö ±è(Soo Kim) ¹Ì ·£µå¿¬±¸¼Ò Á¤Ã¥ºÐ¼®°üÀº 9ÀÏ ÀÚÀ¯¾Æ½Ã¾Æ¹æ¼Û(RFA)¿¡ ¡°¸¸¾à °øÈ­´çÀÌ ÇÏ¿ø¿¡¼­ ´Ù¼ö´çÀ» Â÷ÁöÇÑ´Ù¸é 2024³â ¹Ì ´ë¼±¿¡¼­ Æ®·³ÇÁ°¡ È帷ΠÃ⸶ÇÏ´Â ±æÀ» ¿­¾î ÁÙ °Í¡±À̶ó¸ç ¡°±èÁ¤ÀºÀº ÇÙ¹«±âÀÇ Áõ°¡ÇÏ´Â À§Çù¿¡ ´ëóÇÏ´Â µ¥ °ü½ÉÀÌ ¾øÀ» ¼ö ÀÖ´Â Æ®·³ÇÁ¿ÍÀÇ ÇÙ µµ¹Ú¿¡¼­ »õ·Î¿î ±âȸ¸¦ ãÀ» ¼öµµ ÀÖ´Ù¡±°í ¹àÇû½À´Ï´Ù. (If we do see a Republican majority in Congress, this may open the door to a Trump candidacy in 2024. This spells implications for North Korea. Kim might find renewed opportunity in his nuclear gamble with Trump who may not be motivated to address the growing threat of Kim's nuclear weapons.)

ÀÌ¾î ¡°¿ì¸®´Â ´õ Å« ºÒ¾ÈÁ¤°ú ±èÁ¤Àº¿¡°Ô À¯¸®ÇÑ ¹æÇâÀ¸·Î ÇâÇÏ°í ÀÖÀ»Áöµµ ¸ð¸¥´Ù¡±¸ç ¡°µ¿¸ÍÀº ´Ù½Ã µµÀü¹Þ°Ô µÉ °ÍÀÌ°í, ÀÌ´Â ±è ÃѺñ¼­°¡ ÀÌ Áö¿ª¿¡ ´ëÇÑ ¸ñÇ¥¸¦ ´Þ¼ºÇÏ´Â µ¥ µµ¿òÀÌ µÉ °Í¡±À̶ó°í ÁöÀûÇß½À´Ï´Ù. (We may instead be heading towards greater instability and the scale tipping towards Kim's favor. Alliances may be put to the stress test again, which will help Kim advance his goals for the region.)

ÇÑÆí À̹ø Áß°£¼±°Å¿¡¼­ Çѱ¹°è ÇÏ¿øÀÇ¿ø 4¸íÀº ¸ðµÎ ´ç¼±ÀÌ À¯·ÂÇÑ °ÍÀ¸·Î Àü¸ÁµÇ°í ÀÖ½À´Ï´Ù. ´º¿åŸÀÓ½º µî ¹Ì ¾ð·Ð¿¡ µû¸£¸é ¾Øµð ±è(´ºÀúÁöÁÖ 3Áö±¸) ¹ÎÁÖ´ç ÀÇ¿øÀº 54.9%¸¦ µæÇ¥ÇØ 3¼±À» È®Á¤Áö¾ú½À´Ï´Ù. °øÈ­´çÀÇ ¿µ ±è(Ķ¸®Æ÷´Ï¾ÆÁÖ 40Áö±¸) ÀÇ¿øÀº 9ÀÏ ¿ÀÀü 46% °³Ç¥°¡ ÁøÇàµÈ °¡¿îµ¥ 59.1%¸¦ Â÷ÁöÇØ ´ç¼±ÀÌ À¯·ÂÇÑ »óȲÀÔ´Ï´Ù.

ÀÏ°¢¿¡¼­´Â °øÈ­´çÀÌ ÇÏ¿øÀ» Â÷ÁöÇÔ¿¡ µû¶ó ±è ÀÇ¿øÀÌ Çѹݵµ ¿Ü±³¾Èº¸ Á¤Ã¥¿¡ Å« ¿µÇâ·ÂÀ» Çà»çÇÏ´Â ¿Ü±³À§ »êÇÏ ¾Æ½Ã¾Æ∙ÅÂÆò¾ç ¼ÒÀ§¿øȸ À§¿øÀå¿¡ µµÀüÇÒ °¡´É¼ºµµ Á¦±âÇÏ°í ÀÖ½À´Ï´Ù.

¡®¼øÀÚ¡¯¶ó´Â Çѱ¹ À̸§À¸·Î Àß ¾Ë·ÁÁø ¹ÎÁÖ´çÀÇ ¸Å¸±¸° ½ºÆ®¸®Å©·²µå(¿ö½ÌÅÏÁÖ 10Áö±¸) ÀÇ¿ø°ú ¹Ì¼Ð ¹Ú ½ºÆ¿(Ķ¸®Æ÷´Ï¾Æ 45Áö±¸) °øÈ­´ç ÀÇ¿øµµ ¸ðµÎ »ó´ë È常¦ ¿©À¯ ÀÖ°Ô Á¦Ä¡¸ç ´ç¼±À» È®Á¤Áþ°Å³ª ´ç¼±ÀÌ À¯·ÂÇÑ »óȲÀÔ´Ï´Ù.

  • Æ®À§ÅÍ
  • ÆäÀ̽ººÏ
  • ¡èÀ§·Î
Copyright ¨Ï Á¶°©Á¦´åÄÄ - ¹«´ÜÀüÀç ¹× Àç¹èÆ÷ ±ÝÁö
´ñ±Û´Þ±â ´ñ±Û¾²±â ÁÖÀÇ»çÇ×

´ñ±Û´Þ±â´Â ·Î±×ÀÎÈÄ »ç¿ëÇÏ½Ç ¼ö ÀÖÀ¸¸ç, ³»¿ëÀº 100ÀÚ À̳»·Î Àû¾îÁֽʽÿÀ. ±¤°í, ¿å¼³, ºñ¼Ó¾î, ÀνŰø°Ý°ú ÇØ´ç ±Û°ú °ü·Ã ¾ø´Â ±ÛÀº »çÀüÅ뺸¾øÀÌ »èÁ¦µË´Ï´Ù.

PC ¹öÀü